Guardians and Shane Bieber Agree on $13.125 Million Deal, but Questions Linger Over Pitcher’s Performance and Future in Cleveland

The Guardians and right-handed pitcher Shane Bieber have reached an agreement, avoiding arbitration. According to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Bieber will earn a salary of $13.125 million for the upcoming season, with additional incentives tied to Cy Young voting, potential All-Star appearances, and postseason awards voting. Represented by Rosenhaus Sports Management, Bieber is entering his final club-controlled season before hitting free agency, and trade rumors have surrounded him throughout the offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected his salary at $12.2 million.

Bieber faced a challenging 2023 season marked by injuries, arguably his least impressive since his rookie year in 2018, though still solid compared to most pitchers. Despite forearm and elbow issues limiting him to 21 starts, he posted a respectable 3.80 ERA in 128 innings, maintaining an average of over six innings per start. While Bieber’s 2020 Cy Young-winning fastball velocity has steadily declined, hitting a career-low of 91.6 mph in 2023, his walk and ground-ball rates remain strong at 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively.

However, a notable decline in strikeout rates, from 41.4% in 2020 to 20.1% in 2023, along with concerning metrics such as a drop in swinging-strike rate and career-worst marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, raise questions about his performance. Despite these concerns, the $13.125 million salary is considered reasonable, even if Bieber performs more like a middle-of-the-rotation starter than the ace he was. Given his track record, there’s optimism that he could rebound in 2024, albeit possibly not to his peak levels.

While the Guardians are not in a rebuilding phase, historically, they have traded key players before reaching free agency, as seen with Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger. Whether Bieber is traded this offseason or during the season, it signals a shift in Cleveland’s long-term rotation plans. With Bieber’s departure imminent, the future rotation is expected to be anchored by pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.