When he openly said that no trade conversations had taken place this week, Pittsburgh Penguins head of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas tried his best to put an end to the escalating NHL trade speculations involving Jake Guentzel.
Though no one has officially confirmed talks, sports fans, and the media are already aware that denial is sometimes a public façade to purchase time privately to deal with such problems. It’s only conjecture that Guentzel would be a fantastic fit because Jim Rutherford, Patrik Allvin, and Rick Tocchet are very familiar with him.
Alright, it makes sense. Many of us would be happy to witness that crew win another Stanley Cup and enjoy the festivities in Vancouver.
But there’s one thing that seems to be missing from the discussion about Guentzel’s future—both short- and long-term—in the debate: What will happen this season if Dubas trades Guentzel, and what will happen the following year?
I’ll say it again: Guentzel won’t be dealt or resigned. He will be acquired by the Penguins during the trade deadline, and they will fight with their current army rather than necessarily the army they desire.
If the Penguins manage to win one or two postseason series, their season will have been successful.
The argument put forth by supporters of the deal the most is, “You can’t let Guentzel get away for nothing!”
A postseason run is not “nothing,” to respond. At the NHL trade deadline, teams from all across the league add rentals each year, and many of those teams are eliminated in the first round. The Penguins would be taking a gamble if they decide to hold onto Guentzel past the deadline. It’s not “nothing” if they make the playoffs or prolong their season. The season extension is the premium that teams are willing to pay for.
Penguins Disagree
The immediate and long-term ramifications from a Guentzel trade is the point that everyone is missing.
The key to getting into the big dance is to keep Guentzel. Unless they acquire a miraculous replacement in the trade, the Penguins are unlikely to qualify for the postseason if they sell him. That isn’t going to happen (why would a team trade for Guentzel and forfeit a guy who could take his place?)
This season, Guentzel and Sidney Crosby have been the mainstays of the Penguins’ offensive.
Evgeni Malkin is the only player who could be able to take Guentzel’s job, but neither he nor coach Mike Sullivan appear to be interested in moving to leftwing just yet. The best moment to bring up that subject is probably next season, although it should come sooner rather than later.
The trade of Guentzel has resulted in a significantly lower probability of qualifying for the playoffs. According to statistics, there’s a good chance the Penguins will compete for a position and win it. The most significant indicator is the goal differential. There are red numbers on the teams they are fighting. Teams typically catch up to that when the game gets closer in the second half.
The bigger repercussions might be tectonic if they miss the playoffs or make it but aren’t competitive without Guentzel. How will the news that their club has traded away one of their last opportunities reach Malkin, Kris Letang, and maybe even Crosby? Trading Guentzel won’t likely make the Penguins better right now. Therefore, it’s possible that a trade for Guentzel would be seen in the locker room as the team throwing in the towel on their professional futures. A few bad feelings might ensue.
Many of you are probably saying, “GOOD,” but that’s a topic for another day.
That is not where the Penguins are right now.
The Guentzel thread has a number of unfavorable effects when pulled. However, it makes sense to keep him for this season and use the money in July to better position the team for a future rebuild or retool.
It is nearly a given that the Penguins will acquire Guentzel if they are a few points off of a postseason place, and they should do so. That isn’t, in my opinion, the most likely case.
The most likely scenario is that the Penguins will be in the postseason by the NHL trade deadline, and it would be extremely difficult to give up Guentzel, even if the return was a strong one in terms of future potential.
Recall that the Penguins hit on nearly every top pick during their incredible run from 2001 to 2006. That had astronomically long odds. Most likely, it won’t occur once more. Exchange Guentzel or other players for draft picks frequently resulted in hope rather than action.
In an attempt to gain competitiveness fast, ask Buffalo, Ottawa, and Detroit about fire sales and recovering draft choices. The teams that choose later in the first round are the ones that will be vying for Guentzel if they want to win the Stanley Cup.
Analysis indicates that first-round selections selected later had about a 60% chance of making an NHL impact, with a far lower percentage going on to regularly rank among the top four defenseman or top six forwards.
Thus, Guentzel’s trade can result in nothing.
Because of this, the Penguins’ best move would be to acquire Guentzel as a rental.
