I urge you to go and look at the extremely gifted Esteban Rivera’s examination of the Yankees’ ZiPS estimates for the 2024 season, who has been leading the effort. Even while we may examine the Yanks’ actual strengths and weaknesses, it’s crucial to understand your rivals, therefore we’ll also discuss the other AL East clubs. The Toronto Blue Jays are the first team on the schedule.
Similar to the Yanks, the Jays are coming off a disappointing season that may have been somewhat muted by a postseason participation that resulted in a series defeat to the Twins, something we didn’t know could happen. With a mostly unchanged core, Toronto returns in 2024 hoping to improve on its youthful core’s campaigns. In keeping with Esteban’s approach, the following three aspects of the Jays ZiPS estimates for 2024 are noteworthy:
Feeling hopeful about Vladdy Jr.
Despite being the AL’s top hitter in 2021, Vladdy has declined in the last two seasons, leading to a very average (2023) season (by his standards, of course). Guerrero Jr. finished 156 games last season with an OPS+ of 117, which is well within his 20th-percentile forecasts for 2024. Vladdy would be playing at his best since 2021 if his 50th percentile result matches his very respectable.278/.357/.492 line.
Without a question, Vladdy has the most offensive upside in this Jays lineup, even with several star-caliber choices. Based on what we witnessed in 2021, Toronto supporters can certainly write off the possibility of a 2021 repetition; yet, there is a lot of opportunity for anticipated development.
Disbelief over Alek Manoah
Who started for the Jays on Opening Day in 2023? Nobody flinched when Alek Manoah stole the ball in Toronto’s opening game of an interleague series against the Cardinals. Despite having a fantastic campaign last season, Kevin Gausman wasn’t an overnight success. Nevertheless, Manoah was selected for Toronto, which says a lot about the degree of faith the team had in him.
ZiPS is dubious about Manoah in 2024 despite the fact that there is a large dosage of excellent productivity prior to that year, given how terrible 2023 played out for the huge right-hander. Even in the best-case scenario, his projected ERA+ of 96 is just below that of a league-average starter, which is still much below what we have seen from him. ZiPS estimates that Manoah’s 2024 80th percentile WAR will be just 2.2, or around half of his 2062 196.2 IP total.
Now, one may debate all the valid reasons Manoah had difficulties in 2023 and how difficult it is to address them. But the truth is that not so long ago, this was one of the AL’s more promising arms, and just as 2023 turned out to be worse than anybody could have predicted, 2024 may show to be a turning point as well. According to reports, the Blue Jays intend to retain him in the lineup and avoid selling him. Amidst all of these challenges, Manoah also struggled with mental health concerns a year ago. It is hoped that he has received support from the Jays organization in addressing these difficulties.
Regarding Ricky Tiedemann, optimism
Don’t look now, but CC Sabathia is the first player close to the excellent prospect’s age. Although injuries kept Tiedemann from reaching the majors in 2023, which was always partly anticipated, he now confronts an intriguing task. With Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, and Kikuchi leading the way in the rotation, Toronto’s pitching is very well-established. Alek Manoah has the fifth slot to lose, which he may well might if his 2023 results don’t improve.
In addition to the aforementioned four, Yariel Rodríguez was just signed and is anticipated to play a hybrid position in 2024 before finally joining the main lineup. Barring injuries, a rotation position out of spring appears doubtful, but perhaps that can be a positive thing for Tiedemann, whose innings will still be closely watched.
His projected strikeout percentage of 27.1 percent, the best of any Toronto starter, has ZiPS quite excited about his future. In the absence of any big-league performance, ZiPS predicts Tiedemann to have a 105 ERA+, assuming a walk rate greater than 10%. It’s never easy to predict how young arms will respond to their first cup of coffee in the major leagues, but not many possibilities
This year’s players might vary greatly from one another, and that could have a significant effect on what should once again be the most competitive division from top to bottom. The Blue Jays have been trying to contend for a few years now, but a number of critical missteps have left them with only a few Wild Card berths and no postseason victories with current core. The emphasis is now on the individuals who are here to produce after they put a lot of effort into pursuing the top free agents this offseason but were unsuccessful.
