The NHL trade landscape appears to be settled, but there are additional intricacies to consider, particularly for the Pittsburgh Penguins and impending free agent Jake Guentzel.
During his show on Friday, Sportsnet 590 host Nick Kypreos casually mentioned that he had heard the Penguins presented Guentzel with a six-year, $50 million contract offer, although it remains unsigned at this time.
While Kypreos’s remarks may not have been intended as an official report, his extensive connections within the hockey community lend credibility to the information. Furthermore, another development unfolded on Friday night in the ongoing saga involving Guentzel and the Penguins when the Montreal Canadiens traded Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets.
Winnipeg surrendered a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2027 third-rounder.
Enthusiasts of trade activity eagerly turned their attention to the Penguins’ circumstances. What could Penguins President of Hockey Operations/General Manager Kyle Dubas fetch for Guentzel on the NHL trade market?
The recent revelations provide further insight into Guentzel’s future. It would be somewhat surprising if Guentzel indeed rejected a $50 million offer. While he might command a slightly higher salary on the open market, there’s a perceived limitation that other players lack: Guentzel’s statistics are somewhat inflated due to his partnership with Sidney Crosby.
Let’s first assess what Montreal truly acquired for Monahan.
A first-round selection? Sort of. The Winnipeg Jets find themselves near the top of the Western Conference and pose a legitimate threat for the Stanley Cup. Hence, their pick is expected to fall somewhere between 22 and 32.
Additionally, there’s a conditional third-round pick in three years.
While it’s not a game-changing return, Monahan isn’t a top-tier player.
Earlier this week, the Calgary Flames traded Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks. Lindholm’s value is comparable to Guentzel’s, if not slightly higher because he’s a top-six center with strong performances at both ends of the ice. Calgary received a 2024 first-round pick from a leading Western Conference team, 27-year-old second-year NHL player Andrei Kuzmenko, a conditional fourth-rounder, and defensive prospects Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo.
Kuzmenko, an undrafted Russian player, tallied 74 points in his debut NHL season but hasn’t maintained that pace this season and has seen limited ice time. With just 21 points (8-13-21) in 43 games, he’s struggled to find consistency. Therefore, Calgary’s primary acquisitions are a late first-rounder, a struggling winger, and two mid-level prospects unlikely to become top-four defensemen.
Penguins fans anticipating a bounty in return for Guentzel in the NHL trade market may be disappointed.
A pick at the end of the first round typically yields a player similar in caliber to Sam Poulin or Owen Pickering. While many useful players emerge from such picks, success isn’t guaranteed. According to recent draft analysis, there’s only around a 35% chance that the player will reach 200 games.
Would such a haul—a late first-rounder and a lesser NHL player—truly benefit the Penguins in the short or long term?
In this scenario, the latter option, involving salary cap space for the next season, appears more favorable.
The Monahan trade set a precedent for the Lindholm price tag, establishing the market. If Dubas and the Penguins believe they have a strong chance of making the playoffs, acquiring Guentzel would significantly bolster their lineup.
What distinguishes Montreal and Calgary from the Penguins are their short-term expectations. Calgary and Montreal aren’t focused on immediate championship contention and subsequent seasons, unlike the Penguins, who face the consequences of three Stanley Cups and a decade of sellouts.
However, if the Penguins are deterred by Guentzel’s contract demands or his rejection of their best offer, and another team presents a superior offer compared to what the Flames received for Lindholm, all bets are off, though such a scenario seems unlikely.
The NHL trade market currently favors buyers over sellers, with limited financial resources available. The conditions and prices are set.
Nevertheless, expecting miracles would be unrealistic.
