The Texas Rangers outperformed the Houston Astros in crucial moments during the 2023 season, but such accomplishments seem insignificant as the 2024 season approaches. According to the projected standings provided by PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus, the defending World Series champions are still seen as playing second fiddle to their in-state rivals.
MLB.com utilized these projections to outline five unexpected storylines for the upcoming season, with the Rangers making the list, albeit not in a favorable manner. The projection suggests that Texas will secure approximately 86 wins, placing them nine games behind the Astros in the American League West.
MLB.com notes that the Rangers’ projected win total of “only” 86 is not particularly surprising, considering they won 90 games last year amidst favorable circumstances. However, the substantial gap behind the Astros raises eyebrows, especially given the perceived strength of the Rangers’ lineup.
Despite key losses like Mitch Garver, Aroldis Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery, and potential injury concerns surrounding Corey Seager, Texas boasts a formidable roster, particularly with the emergence of promising outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.
Additionally, the Rangers anticipate the return of star pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, along with the addition of free-agent signing Tyler Mahle, bolstering their pitching rotation.
Nevertheless, whether the Rangers can close the gap with the Astros remains uncertain. Houston, having clinched the AL West title last season and making seven consecutive ALCS appearances, maintains a formidable presence.
Furthermore, while the Astros have strengthened their bullpen with the addition of Josh Hader, the Rangers have experienced setbacks in their relief pitching department, losing Chapman and possibly overworking José Leclerc during the playoff push. FanGraphs even ranks the Rangers’ relievers 24th in the league.
Ultimately, while the projected nine-game gap between the two teams may seem large, the performance of bullpens can often deviate from expectations.
The Rangers will have an opportunity to assess their pitching staff during spring training, with pitchers and catchers slated to report on February 14th.
