The Braves’ top pitcher has faced an unusually high amount of bad luck throughout his career thus far.
The Atlanta Braves boast one of baseball’s premier pitchers, yet he has endured a streak of unfortunate luck throughout his career. However, the Braves remain optimistic that fortune will eventually smile upon this standout player.
After enduring a rocky start to his career, Braves’ starter Spencer Strider showcased his dominance in the MLB in 2023. Despite leading the league in strikeouts, strikeout rate, wins, and winning percentage, Strider surprisingly finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting due to his relatively high ERA of 3.86, a statistic that would have been unprecedentedly high for a Cy Young winner.
This anomaly in Strider’s performance can largely be attributed to bad luck. Despite leading the National League in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which isolates a pitcher’s performance from defensive support, Strider’s ERA remained higher than expected, suggesting that he faced challenges when balls were put into play.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), an ERA variation, focuses solely on factors within a pitcher’s control, such as strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs, excluding the role of fielding. When a pitcher’s FIP surpasses their ERA, it typically indicates that their batted balls result in more hits than average.
For Strider, this discrepancy has been particularly pronounced. According to Codify Baseball, the disparity between Strider’s FIP (2.48) and his ERA (3.37) over his initial 50 starts is the largest since baseball transitioned to overhand pitching in 1884—an unprecedented occurrence spanning 140 years.
Research conducted at FanGraphs suggests several factors contributing to the gap between FIP and ERA, including defense, sequencing, and luck. Unfortunately for Strider, none of these factors seem to be in his favor.
The role of defense in batted ball events appears to be a significant factor. A pitcher with a subpar defense behind them is statistically less likely to benefit from plays made in their favor. This was evident in Atlanta’s 2023 season, where the team ranked 15th in total defense, as per Fielding Bible’s “Defensive Runs Saved,” with notable deficiencies in shortstop and outfield positions.
Analyzing Strider’s spray charts provides further insight into the distribution of hits against him, potentially shedding light on areas for improvement and factors contributing to his streak of misfortune.
