The Atlanta Braves are poised for success in 2024, boasting a stacked roster that is expected to achieve significant accomplishments. It would take a series of setbacks for them to miss out on the postseason.
As highlighted in a recent article, the Braves have received notably favorable World Series odds from FanGraphs. Their talent is recognized by both analysts and computer projections alike. However, history has shown that projections can sometimes be misleading.
For instance, in the previous season, PECOTA predicted the New York Mets to win the NL East with 96 wins after a strong offseason. Yet, the Mets fell short of the playoffs, finishing well behind the Braves in the division standings.
Baseball is known for its unpredictability, and past projections have often proven to be inaccurate. Even teams with low playoff odds have defied expectations, such as the Texas Rangers last year.
While there are numerous reasons to believe the Braves will make the postseason, it’s worth considering what circumstances could prevent them from doing so. One major factor is injuries to key players, which can significantly impact a team’s performance.
However, the Braves are equipped to handle such challenges better than most teams. Even in the event of injuries to star players like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson, the Braves still have a strong lineup featuring players like Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Marcell Ozuna.
While the loss of key players would undoubtedly be felt, the Braves have sufficient depth to remain competitive. Despite potential lineup adjustments, they would still field a formidable team capable of contending for a playoff spot.
Significant Decline
It’s plausible that many Braves players exceeded expectations last season and are poised for regression in 2024.
For instance, history suggests that Matt Olson is unlikely to replicate his impressive performance with over a .280 batting average and 50-plus home runs. Additionally, Marcell Ozuna’s resurgence at the age of 33 after lackluster seasons in 2021 and 2022 is questionable. Similarly, while Ronald Acuña Jr. has shown immense talent, expecting another 40-70 season may be unrealistic. Even Ozzie Albies, coming off a career-high 33 home runs and improved averages, may regress.
Despite potential regression, the Braves offense was so dominant in 2023 that even a significant decline would still leave them as one of the league’s top offenses. Their offensive superiority, with a substantial gap in OPS, home runs, and batting average compared to other teams, cushions the impact of potential regression.
Pitching Concerns
Concerns for the upcoming season largely revolve around the pitching staff. Pitchers are inherently volatile, and the Braves have taken on some risk with their rotation.
While Max Fried has been durable, his injury-filled previous season raises concerns as he enters his 30s. Chris Sale’s limited innings since 2019 and Charlie Morton’s potential regression at age 40 add further uncertainty. Additionally, there are depth concerns in the starting rotation, with unproven pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep.
While there is some depth in the back of the rotation, relying on these pitchers for an extended period or postseason success may be risky.
Despite potential setbacks in both offense and pitching, it’s still challenging to envision the Braves failing to reach the postseason. The bar for postseason entry is relatively low, requiring around 85-86 wins. Given their talent and track record, the Braves are well-positioned to achieve this milestone for a seventh consecutive year, barring multiple catastrophic events.
