Toronto Faces Uphill Battle to Retain Vladimir Guerrero Jr. After Record-Breaking Deals
The Toronto Blue Jays‘ offseason is shaping up to be a nightmare, and the worst part? The worst might still be ahead. Not only has the team missed out on high-profile free agents like Juan Soto, Garrett Crochet, and Max Fried, but it also faces the growing reality that its superstar, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is rapidly becoming too expensive to retain.
The off-season started with high hopes for the Blue Jays, as they aimed to bolster their roster for a serious push in 2024. Instead, the team has watched as key targets signed elsewhere, and now, their most valuable asset—Guerrero—has seen his market value soar after a breakout season. With Soto’s record $765 million deal this winter, Guerrero’s potential to land a similarly massive contract in 2025 is undeniable. Spotrac has already projected a 12-year, $462 million deal for Guerrero next offseason.
For Blue Jays fans, the situation is bittersweet. The team’s 25-year-old slugger has continued to play like an MVP-caliber player, solidifying his place as one of the league’s brightest young stars. But with that production comes a skyrocketing price tag, and the reality is, keeping him in Toronto is becoming more unlikely with every passing day.
Could 2025 Be Guerrero’s Last Year in Toronto?
According to FanSided’s Zachary Rotman, 2025 might very well be the end of Guerrero’s time with the Blue Jays. Rotman predicts that the team will part ways with the superstar at some point during the 2025 offseason—perhaps even sooner.
“As bad as this past season was for the Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a bright spot. He performed like the MVP-caliber player that the Jays envisioned. He also raised his price significantly in the process, and now, with the 25-year-old entering his final year of club control, Jays fans can only wonder just how much his price has risen from the Soto signing,” Rotman wrote.
The problem for the Blue Jays is that Guerrero is in control of his destiny. With the record-breaking contracts we’ve seen recently—Soto’s $765 million deal is a clear indication—there’s little reason to believe Guerrero would take a hometown discount to stay in Toronto. The bidding war for his services in free agency could see his value rise even further, and that’s not something the Blue Jays are likely to be able to match.
“An extension is the dream, but why would Guerrero entertain that after the bidding war that he saw Soto go through?” Rotman added. “If he enters the open market, the chances of him remaining with the Blue Jays go down exponentially.”
Is Trading Guerrero the Only Option?
With the odds of retaining Guerrero via free agency looking slim, the Blue Jays may need to consider a more drastic measure: trading their superstar before it’s too late.
While a midseason trade is unlikely right now, it could become a real possibility if Toronto finds itself out of playoff contention by the trade deadline next season. If the Blue Jays are struggling to stay in the hunt for a postseason spot, parting ways with Guerrero would not only help them avoid the risk of losing him for nothing but could also bring in a significant return of prospects and young talent to help build for the future.
The idea of trading a generational talent like Guerrero is difficult for any fanbase to digest, but it might be the best course of action for the long-term health of the franchise. After all, trading him at the deadline would allow the Blue Jays to extract maximum value rather than watching him walk away in free agency a few months later.
A Franchise at a Crossroads
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a precarious situation. The team has a ton of young talent, but they’ve also failed to capitalize on the opportunity to improve their roster this offseason. Losing out on free agents like Soto is a tough pill to swallow, especially considering the immense pressure on the front office to build a championship contender.
Now, with Guerrero’s free agency looming large on the horizon, the Blue Jays have a decision to make: either make a competitive push to keep him on the roster long-term or start planning for a future without him. The longer they wait, the more likely it becomes that Guerrero will take his talents to the open market—and, likely, to another team willing to pay him the type of contract the Blue Jays simply can’t afford.
If Toronto is serious about keeping Guerrero in the fold, they need to make some major moves quickly. But as the days tick down, it’s becoming more clear: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s time in Toronto may be coming to an end sooner than anyone wants to admit.
