Throughout the offseason, I’ve intended to delve into the topic of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, due to chaos at my day job and a string of minor emergencies, I haven’t been able to finish my analysis. Nevertheless, the question of “what’s up with Vlad?”
has become increasingly pertinent in recent months. Following the hype surrounding Shohei Ohtani, the Blue Jays seem to have opted for an approach centered largely on internal improvements to surpass last year’s ultimately disappointing wildcard performance. Their roster moves have mainly focused on filling gaps left by departing players.
Justin Turner steps in for Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier retains his spot, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa remains on the roster while Matt Chapman does not. The lone significant addition, pitcher Yariel Rodriguez, brings intrigue but lacks proven MLB experience. Consequently, the pressure is on Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah, and especially Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to deliver on their star potential, which they fell short of in 2023.
Several insightful articles this winter have touched on Vlad, but I find them collectively intriguing yet incomplete in explaining his situation. One such article, penned by Bobby Robert Orr for Baseball Prospectus in November, actually focuses on Corey Seager and his ability to aggressively swing at pitches conducive to hitter success while showing restraint on less favorable ones.
This concept, akin to plate discipline, considers both the quality of contact a hitter can make and the count. Surprisingly, Vlad ranks eighth on the leaderboard for selective aggressiveness, largely due to his exceptional rate of swings at favorable pitches and a relatively low rate of swings at unfavorable ones.
For comparison, Bo is similarly adept at not missing pitches he should swing at, but he doesn’t rank as highly overall because he struggles to lay off unfavorable pitches. Meanwhile, players like Joey Wendle of the Rays excel at avoiding unhittable pitches but may miss out on opportunities by not swinging at pitches they should.
In terms of which pitches average MLB hitters should swing at, Vlad seems to strike a balance, showing patience outside the zone and aggression within it, which is advantageous if he’s productive with those balls in play.
The other article, written by Michael Baumann for Fangraphs last month, provides another perspective worth considering. I recommend reading both articles (especially since the Baseball Prospectus piece is available for free to non-subscribers).
Baumann’s analysis suggests that Vlad has altered his swing to make more contact lower in the zone, which Baumann believes has diminished his ability to generate power, particularly on high pitches where he has excelled historically.
While Vlad’s contact rate has increased across a broader area over time, Baumann argues that this might result in less impactful contact compared to his previous approach, which focused more on attacking high fastballs.
Combining the insights from both articles paints a picture of a hitter who excels in various aspects but lacks cohesion in his approach.
Vlad demonstrates sound decision-making in his swing choices, rarely letting hittable pitches go by while also avoiding many pitches outside the zone.
He also displays above-average contact ability, particularly considering his power-hitting style. However, much of his contact isn’t productive due to a tendency to hit too many balls into the ground, resulting in a high rate of hard-hit groundouts. This pattern is concerning, even though he’s not alone among sluggers in this regard.
However, this explanation may not capture the entirety of Vlad’s struggles. Despite an increase in his ground ball rate from his excellent 2021 season, it only rose by 1.4 percentage points. Additionally, his average launch angle reached a career high of 10.5 degrees. This discrepancy also fails to explain why he performed worse in 2023 compared to 2022, when his launch angle was significantly lower.
Next week, the plan is to delve into Vlad’s pitch data to gain a deeper understanding of what has changed and identify potential areas to monitor in the upcoming season to gauge whether he can reverse his performance trajectory.
