The Atlanta Braves boasted a remarkable offense last season, leading the league in runs scored in a historic manner. Their 2023 season saw them score the most runs in a single season since 1897, an era that predates the existence of most current humans and coincided with the Klondike Gold Rush. This feat surpassed the Boston Beaneaters’ achievement of scoring 1,035 runs in just 135 games that year (although it’s unlikely any Greenland sharks, known for their long lifespans, were following baseball at the time).
To illustrate their offensive dominance, consider the gap between the Braves and the rest of the league in run-scoring. The Braves scored 947 runs, while the next closest team, the Dodgers, scored 906 runs. This 41-run difference between first and second place is substantial. Additionally, the Braves’ run total exceeded the median runs scored by a team by 201 runs. In comparison, the Dodgers led MLB in runs scored in 2022 with 847, a full 100 runs fewer than the Braves’ 2023 total.
In terms of wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus), the Braves had a mark of 125, with the second-place Rays at 118, indicating a seven-point difference between first and second place. Removing seven points from the second-place team would drop them to tied for fifth.
Given this impressive performance, repeating such an output seems improbable.
Can the Braves replicate their offensive success from 2023?
With the Braves’ offense largely unchanged, it’s intriguing to assess the team’s potential on paper to determine if they can match their run output from the previous season.
While various factors such as injuries, trades, and schedule strength can impact outcomes, we can make an educated guess by examining the team’s current composition. One approach is to compare actual outputs with expected outputs, such as comparing wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) to xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average).
Looking at last year’s starters and their xwOBA vs. wOBA:
– Acuña: .460 (xwOBA) vs. .428 (wOBA)
– Albies: .340 vs. .358
– Arcia: .307 vs. .321
– d’Arnaud: .326 vs. .297
– Harris: .357 vs. .345
– Olson: .392 vs. .413
– Ozuna: .396 vs. .381
– Riley: .365 vs. .363
– Rosario: .317 vs. .322
– Murphy: .395 vs. .366
On average, there was a gap of .0061, with wOBA underperforming xwOBA. When weighted by plate appearances, this gap decreased to .004, which aligns with the overall team trend. The Braves had a team xwOBA of .363 and a team wOBA of .359.
When considering players whose xwOBA was higher than their wOBA (indicating potential for increased production over time):
– Acuña
– d’Arnaud
– Harris
– Ozuna
– Riley
– Murphy
And players who were on the “lucky” side of wOBA splits:
– Albies
– Arcia
– Olson
– Rosario
Adding Jarred Kelenic, who will replace Rosario, into the mix, the offense appears to have better odds of maintaining or improving their performance in 2024. With a 41-run lead over second place in 2023 and favorable xwOBA vs. wOBA splits, the Braves seem poised to repeat as the league leaders in runs scored.
