Alonso, who is about to enter a contract year, will “most likely” enter free agency, according to David Stearns.
As spring training commences, notable free agents like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell remain unsigned. However, it’s already time to anticipate next offseason’s free agent pool, which will feature standouts such as Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto, alongside New York Mets star Pete Alonso, who is entering his contract’s final year.
When questioned about Alonso’s future, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns expressed that it’s probable Alonso will reach free agency. Discussions regarding a contract extension between Alonso and the Mets have occurred sporadically over the past year or two, but no agreement has materialized. With Alonso being represented by Scott Boras, a renowned agent known for guiding his top clients to free agency, it’s unlikely that a deal will be reached before the start of the season.
Alonso, aged 29, launched an impressive 46 home runs across 154 games last season. However, he also registered career lows (excluding the abbreviated 2020 season) in batting average (.217), on-base percentage (.318), slugging percentage (.504), and average exit velocity (89.5 mph). Alonso’s return from a wrist bone bruise ahead of schedule raises the possibility that playing injured may have impacted his performance.
While Alonso is undoubtedly one of the premier power hitters in the game, and a long-term deal with a team like the Mets, boasting significant financial resources, may seem logical, there are valid reasons for the Mets to adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than extending him now.
Reasons to extend Alonso:
1. **Production Replacement Challenge**: Alonso’s ability to consistently deliver 40+ home runs in the current era where power hitters are highly valued makes him a rare commodity. With several prime years ahead of him, he could be instrumental in the Mets’ resurgence to contention, offering a game-changing offensive prowess.
2. **Franchise Figurehead**: Alonso’s popularity and commitment to the Mets position him as a cornerstone of the franchise. His potential to break franchise home run records could boost ticket sales and merchandise revenue, aligning with the team’s long-term interests and fan engagement.
3. **Potential Cost Escalation**: Delaying Alonso’s extension risks inflating his asking price if he delivers another standout season. Learning from the Yankees’ experience with Aaron Judge, whose MVP performance led to a significant contract increase, the Mets might opt to secure Alonso’s services before a standout season affects his market value.
Reasons to delay extension:
1. **Risks of Profile**: Historically, right-handed hitting and right-handed throwing first basemen face challenges in aging gracefully. While Alonso has shown promise akin to successful players like José Abreu and Paul Konerko, there’s a broader trend of such profiles struggling in their post-30 years, raising concerns about the sustainability of his performance.
2. **Market Dynamics**: The current market climate might not favor first basemen with historic contract demands. While Alonso could replicate Judge’s success, it’s more probable that he faces challenges in securing a lucrative deal. Given the historical trends in first baseman contracts, the Mets could benefit from market pressures driving down Alonso’s asking price.
Olson secured his contract a year prior to turning 28, making him younger at the time than Alonso is currently. Goldschmidt’s extension commenced during his age 32 season, resulting in a shorter duration. Despite Alonso’s considerable skills, he doesn’t quite match Freeman’s caliber. Considering Freeman, a superior hitter and defender, couldn’t fetch $200 million in the recent market, it appears unlikely that Alonso would command such a sum. The first baseman market has been less favorable, with significant deals for players like Cabrera, Pujols, and Fielder occurring a decade ago.
Moreover, there’s potential for the Mets to gain considerably through a trade. While the return might not surpass expectations, it could still be substantial, as demonstrated by recent deals such as the Corbin Burnes trade. If Alonso departs as a free agent next offseason, the Mets would only secure a compensation draft pick after the fourth round due to their competitive balance tax status. Opting for a trade, albeit unpopular with fans, could yield a more favorable outcome. While it’s gratifying as a baseball enthusiast to witness players spending their entire careers with one team, Alonso’s potential to surpass Strawberry’s home run record and his popularity among fans make him a valuable asset worth retaining. While there are legitimate baseball reasons for considering Alonso’s departure, Cohen’s financial capacity can mitigate any potential drawbacks. Ensuring Alonso remains a Met throughout his career should be a priority, with every effort made to secure his extension before exploring other options like trade or free agency.
