Lucas Giolito, 29, signed his current deal hoping to bounce back from a rough couple of years and reenter the market in a stronger position. Between 2022 and 2023, he pitched 346 innings but struggled with a 4.89 ERA while playing for the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians. His home run rate spiked during this time, which significantly impacted his performance. Despite this, he maintained a decent 25.5% strikeout rate, slightly above the average, and a 9% walk rate, slightly higher than average.
The main reason for Giolito’s struggles was the increase in his home run rate. Advanced metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) suggest that he was better than his ERA indicates but still not as good as he was in his peak years of 2019 to 2021 when he had a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate.
With Giolito’s season in doubt due to a major injury, any hopes of a quick rebound will likely be put on hold for at least a year. This leaves the Boston Red Sox with a rotation question, with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock as the most likely options to start the season. While they have other pitchers on the 40-man roster, they have not added many veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for spots.
Giolito’s injury could also affect the market for pitchers, with Red Sox fans hoping for Jordan Montgomery, who has strong ties to Boston. However, Montgomery is reportedly still seeking a long-term deal, which may not align with the Red Sox’s plans. They will need to consider this while deciding whether to pursue him or other available options like Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, who have also performed well in recent seasons and are still unsigned.
