Four months and 50 games have elapsed since the Edmonton Oilers surprised the hockey world by firing Jay Woodcroft, the first coaching casualty of the 2023-24 season. Once seen as a rising star, Woodcroft’s Oilers endured a tough first month, which severely dented their playoff hopes and almost extinguished their Stanley Cup ambitions.
Kris Knoblauch was brought in to replace Jay Woodcroft mid-season, coming from the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL with the New York Rangers’ permission. The decision to appoint Paul Coffey, with limited coaching experience but a wealth of NHL playing experience, as his defensive assistant to replace Dave Manson was equally surprising.
Despite Coffey’s lack of coaching exposure, the Oilers have significantly improved defensively under the new coaching regime. A comparison between Knoblauch and Woodcroft was initially made after Game 26, where Woodcroft’s final games included a disastrous start with poor shooting and save percentages.
However, for a more balanced comparison, we will now compare Knoblauch’s first 50 games to Woodcroft’s last 50. This larger sample size includes periods of success for both coaches, such as Knoblauch’s 16-game win streak and Woodcroft’s 14-0-1 stretch.
Following the same approach as before:
This time around, there are no red cells in the rankings columns, which were prominent in Woodcroft’s team performance table, indicating a team among the worst in the NHL. The current table shows a consistent presence of green cells: darker for Top 5 in the NHL, lighter for 6-10, or no color for rankings near the middle of the pack.
Woodcroft’s team had a mix of these color codes, whereas Knoblauch’s Oilers consistently rank in the Top 5. The only slightly lower ranking is in team shooting percentage, which is still a respectable 7th.
Under Knoblauch, Edmonton’s offensive performance has decreased slightly, with a little over a 5% drop in goal-scoring. The powerplay unit, which was once outstanding, has also declined but remains excellent.
The most significant improvements have been in the defensive end, which coincidentally was the area that needed the most improvement.
In summary, the team has scored 11 fewer goals but has significantly reduced opponents’ output by 31 goals, nearly a 20% reduction, which is a trade-off any NHL coach would be pleased with.
The goal differential has increased by 0.4 goals per game to +1.14, moving from 7th in the league to 2nd, just behind the Florida Panthers’ league-best +1.16 over the same 4-month period.
Overall, Kris Knoblauch’s Oilers have shown strength in all areas, a characteristic of a genuine contender.
Given the notable improvements in goals-against, let’s begin with a focus on the goaltenders:
Stu Skinner emerged as the starting goaltender under Woodcroft and has maintained that position since the coaching change. He has started 37 of the 50 games, showing improved stats in various areas.
Knoblauch took over shortly after Jack Campbell was waived and sent to Bakersfield, introducing Calvin Pickard as the new backup.
Pickard has exceeded expectations, particularly highlighted by his recent performance of stopping the last 65 shots he faced over 5 scoreless periods, boosting his percentages even higher than Skinner’s over the 50 games under review. Skinner still receives about 75% of the starts and is the preferred choice against top opponents, but Pickard’s consistent performance has earned him the confidence of the coach, organization, and fans.
Meanwhile, Campbell has been performing exceptionally well in the AHL. Following a 31-save, 4-1 victory against the Abbotsford Canucks on Tuesday, his record since Christmas stands at an impressive 11-5-0, with a 2.25 goals-against average and a .933 save percentage. This performance has re-established him as a viable third goaltending option for the Oilers heading into the playoffs.
Let’s shift our focus to the forwards before delving deeper into the defensemen. Here are some basic stats: goals, assists, points (listed in order of total points over the 100 games), traditional plus-minus, and average time on ice.
The same group of players seems to be carrying the bulk of the workload in terms of minutes and production under both coaches. One notable difference is a significant increase in plus-minus for all members of the current top 6; they are not only scoring but also outscoring their opponents.
On the contrary, the bottom 6 is contributing less and struggling, mostly unsuccessfully, to avoid negative plus-minus ratings. This is why the addition of veteran Adam Henrique to bolster the top 9 is seen as a significant move.
While plus/minus has its limitations, it is largely based on 5v5 results. For the key Oilers players, the improvements have mainly focused on preventing goals in this context.
For instance, Draisaitl, in his last 50 games under Woodcroft, was on the ice for 47 goals for and 43 against at 5v5. In a similar number of minutes under Knoblauch, he has been on the ice for 48 goals for and just 28 against, marking a 16-goal improvement, with 15 of those coming in defense.
Similarly, Hyman’s 5v5 on-ice goal share has improved from +55/-46 to +57/-27, representing nearly a 40% reduction in goals against over a similar number of minutes.
Let’s turn our attention to the forwards before we take a closer look at the defensemen. Here are some basic stats for the forwards, including goals, assists, points (listed in order of total points over the 100 games), traditional plus-minus, and average time on ice.
The same core group of players appears to be handling the majority of the workload in terms of minutes and production under both coaches. One significant change is the notable increase in plus-minus ratings for all members of the current top 6; not only are they scoring, but they are also outscoring their opponents. Conversely, the bottom 6 is contributing less and struggling, mostly unsuccessfully, to avoid negative plus-minus ratings. This is why the acquisition of veteran Adam Henrique to strengthen the top 9 is viewed as a significant move.
While plus/minus has its limitations, it primarily reflects 5v5 results. The key Oilers players have mainly focused on preventing goals in this context. For example, Draisaitl, in his last 50 games under Woodcroft, was on the ice for 47 goals for and 43 against at 5v5.
Under Knoblauch, in a similar number of minutes, he has been on the ice for 48 goals for and just 28 against, showing a 16-goal improvement, with 15 of those coming on the defensive end. Similarly, Hyman’s 5v5 on-ice goal share has improved from +55/-46 to +57/-27, indicating nearly a 40% reduction in goals against over a similar number of minutes.
The emphasis in Edmonton has been on “healthy” for the remaining six players. All six have played in all 50 games under Knoblauch. This stability on the back end has undoubtedly benefited the team, even as Broberg, undoubtedly frustrated, remains the odd man out. He is still the seventh defenseman, but under Knoblauch, only six players ever see the lineup. These same six players have played every single game.
Knoblauch’s preference for a strict six-man unit became evident when extra defenseman Philip Kemp played in a game in Montreal as the Last Man Standing. Kemp made his NHL debut and had a few shifts but notably played right wing. In contrast, Woodcroft would likely have incorporated Kemp into a seven-man group, giving him some time at his natural position and adjusting the lineup accordingly.
Through 50 games under Knoblauch, the group of Bouchard, Nurse, Ekholm, Ceci, Desharnais, and Kulak has played a combined total of 5864 minutes. Broberg has played just over 15 minutes. It seems that nobody else is considered for these positions.
This situation raises the question of where recent trade acquisition Troy Stecher fits in. It seems unlikely that he would be part of a seven-man rotation, based on the evidence (though this may change). If not, who would be replaced to accommodate him?
For now, the answer is nobody. Stecher has only recently started practicing with his new team, having joined them during a strange road trip where they played games instead of having morning practices.
Knoblauch has informed the media that there will be no changes to the defensive lineup when the Oilers face the Washington Capitals on Wednesday, and it’s understandable given their recent performance. The team has just completed a stretch of 6 games in 9 days in March, where they collected 9 points from a 4-1-1 record. During this stretch, they scored 18 goals and allowed just 9. In the first 3 wins, they allowed only 1 goal; in the fourth, they did not allow any goals.
This improvement in defensive performance has been a significant theme of the current season. Last season, the Oilers played only 10 games where they held their opponents to 1 goal or fewer (including 2 shutouts), with a 9-0-1 record in those games.
In the current season, which has just passed the three-quarter mark, the Oilers have already played 20 such games (including 4 shutouts), winning all 20. It’s worth noting that 3 of these games occurred under Woodcroft, meaning that 17 of Knoblauch’s 50 games — a third of them — could be characterized as instances of strong defensive play.
Key Points
The current Oilers team is much more balanced than a year ago when they led the league in offense but were average defensively. Under Kris Knoblauch’s guidance, they have been strong in both aspects, as well as in the neutral zone.
It’s not just the goaltenders or the defense; the team effort has been crucial. Knoblauch emphasized the importance of their system, stating that while they have implemented it successfully, there is always room for improvement and adjustments.
Regarding Troy Stecher, Knoblauch mentioned that he would likely be integrated into the lineup in the next 2 or 3 games, and they are comfortable with either a 6 or 7 defenseman lineup, depending on the opponent and matchups. He believes Stecher will be a valuable addition to the team’s defensive depth.
Overall, the current Oilers team is strong and competitive in all aspects of the game, making them an exciting team to watch.
