At the start of the offseason, Adam Ottavino declined his option to stay with the Mets for a $6.75 million salary in 2024. After exploring free agency, the 38-year-old reliever ultimately re-signed with the Mets on a one-year, $4.5 million deal.
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During this time, he also appeared on SNY and expressed some concerns about the team’s goals for the season, as well as his desire to play for a contender, creating a bit of an unusual situation.
Ottavino is now entering his third season in the Mets’ bullpen. His first season in 2022 was particularly strong, with a 2.06 ERA and a 2.85 FIP in 65.2 innings pitched. However, his performance dipped slightly in 2023, finishing the season with a 3.21 ERA and a 4.52 FIP in 61.2 innings.
His walk rate increased from 6.2 percent in 2022 to 11.1 percent in 2023, while his strikeout rate decreased from 30.6 percent to 23.8 percent. Additionally, home runs were more of a concern in 2023 than in the previous season.
Ottavino’s average fastball velocity also dropped by a little over one mile per hour from 2022 to 2023, though a similar decline had occurred from 2021 to 2022, coinciding with improved performance.
Given Ottavino’s performance and age, projection systems are forecasting an even higher ERA for him this year, with various models at FanGraphs estimating around a 4.00 ERA. However, relievers are generally unpredictable from year to year, so outcomes significantly better or worse than the projections would not be surprising.
In terms of Ottavino’s role in the Mets’ bullpen this year, Roster Resource currently lists him as the team’s primary setup man. However, this role is not set in stone, especially if Jake Diekman maintains his dominant form from last year with the Tampa Bay Rays, and Brooks Raley continues his strong performance from the past couple of seasons. Both Diekman and Raley are left-handed pitchers, but neither has significant platoon splits.
While this setup wouldn’t completely eliminate Ottavino’s need to pitch in high-leverage situations, it does suggest some flexibility in managing the Mets’ bullpen and bridging the gap between the starting pitchers and Edwin Díaz, who is returning as the team’s closer.
