It’s been over six weeks since the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, from the Brewers, and the move is still hard to believe. Burnes represents the caliber of pitcher that the Orioles haven’t added through signing or trade in a long time, fulfilling a desire among fans for a top-end pitcher since the team’s fortunes changed in the middle of the 2022 season.
Imagine heading into a season with a starting pitcher on your favorite team whom you can realistically expect great things from, based on a multi-year track record of excellence. No pitcher in Orioles baseball in the 21st century has had a three-year stretch as impressive as Burnes’s before joining the team.
Last year, despite being somewhat of a disappointment for him, he finished with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.069 WHIP over 193.2 innings, and 200 strikeouts, ranking him in the top 20 in strikeouts in MLB, top 10 in ERA, and top 10 in innings pitched.
When a 3.5 bWAR season is considered a step back, it’s a testament to how well Burnes has performed. From 2021 to 2023, he ranks second in strikeouts, seventh in ERA, and fourth in innings pitched. Burnes has also been remarkably durable, only landing on the injured list once, when he missed a couple of weeks due to COVID in 2021.
This combination of quality and durability is rare among starting pitchers today, which is why the Orioles had to pay a serious price to acquire Burnes for just one year before he becomes a free agent. Only 20 pitchers threw at least 180 innings last year, compared to 66 pitchers a decade ago. The Orioles had to give up DL Hall and Joey Ortiz, both highly regarded prospects, to get Burnes. Hall is now part of the Milwaukee rotation, while Ortiz could see regular playing time for the Brewers.
The trade of DL Hall and Joey Ortiz for Corbin Burnes has left some Orioles fans wondering if the value of Hall and Ortiz for the 2024 Brewers might surpass Burnes’s value to the 2024 Orioles, not to mention the future seasons Milwaukee will get from those players.
Burnes, while still impressive in 2023, has seen a slight decline in performance, with his WAR dropping from 5.3 in his Cy Young-winning season in 2021 to 3.5 last year. His strikeout rate has also decreased, from 35.6% in 2021 to 25.5% in 2023, although it rebounded to 28.6% in the second half of 2023.
Despite these fluctuations, projection systems remain optimistic about Burnes’s performance, with ZiPS forecasting a 3.46 ERA and a 4+ win season for him in 2024, which is exactly what the Orioles need.
Burnes’s addition is seen as crucial, especially with the delay in the timetables of Kyle Bradish and John Means, which will likely keep them out until at least mid-May. Burnes provides a stabilizing force for the Orioles’ rotation and gives them flexibility to assess pitching prospects and potential trade targets as the season progresses.
While trading for Burnes is seen as a positive move for the Orioles, it’s worth noting that there were other options available, such as Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery. Only time will tell if Burnes proves to be the right choice, but for now, Orioles fans are eager to see him take the mound at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
