This week’s query echoes last week’s but shifts focus to the other end of the spectrum. Instead of scrutinizing the most improved team, the topic revolves around which team might regress in the 2024 season.
Mike: As always, several teams could potentially see a decline this season. It wouldn’t be surprising if Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, and Wyoming all see a decrease in their win totals compared to last season. The question then arises: which team will experience the most significant drop? All four teams achieved nine wins in 2023. The Falcons experienced the most notable loss in production, while the Cowboys underwent a coaching change. Despite retaining much of their offensive core, the Bulldogs may face challenges, whereas the Rebels, though losing some in the transfer portal, have also gained reinforcements and boast a second year in their offensive system. My pick is Wyoming, though a regression would likely mean achieving six or seven wins instead of nine in the 2024 season.
Matt: Among teams that won eight or more games last season, only one underwent a coaching change: Wyoming. While they have the potential to improve, there’s also a strong possibility of regression in 2024. Air Force faces significant production losses, and UNLV will need to find a new QB. Boise and Fresno seem less likely to regress unless Tedford’s health deteriorates further. Hence, reluctantly, I’ll forecast a setback for the Cowboys. They could still secure a bowl eligibility, but they might land at 6-6 instead of their 9-4 record in 2023.
Jack: Two California schools catch my attention in this regard. Fresno State, with QB Mikey Keene and RB Malik Sherrod, should still reach bowl eligibility, but they’ve lost key players on both offense and defense. The offense needs to fill gaps left by their top three receivers, tight end, and offensive linemen, while the defense copes with the absence of several linebackers and secondary players. Another nine-win season under Jeff Tedford would surprise me. Similarly, San Jose State faces a likely regression after losing head coach Brent Brennan to Arizona. Transitioning to former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, they’ve also bid farewell to significant offensive and defensive players from last year’s squad. Achieving a bowl game in the first year under Niumatalolo would be quite the feat
Jeff: Optimism typically reigns as summer approaches, with past results serving as a benchmark for the upcoming season. However, after the 2023 season, expectations were tempered by the reality that the conference’s performance wasn’t stellar. Looking ahead to 2024, there’s little room for a significant decline. Anticipated underwhelming performances may come from Air Force, Hawaii, Colorado State, and Wyoming, while San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico, and Nevada are likely to maintain low expectations. Early-season hype surrounds Boise State, UNLV, San Diego State, and Fresno State, but among them, one may fall short of expectations due to factors like new players, coaching changes, or unforeseen challenges. My prediction leans towards San Diego State, where despite promising long-term prospects, uncertainties and an unproven track record may dampen expectations, especially in Sea. Lewis’ debut season.
Dom: Fresno State and Wyoming stand out as teams with potential challenges. Although the Bulldogs should still secure wins and a bowl appearance, significant roster adjustments on both offense and defense pose hurdles. Wyoming’s coaching transition raises uncertainties for the season, but neither team should anticipate a major setback. While a slight decrease in losses is probable, both are likely to reach bowl eligibility.
