This week’s Six Points covers skepticism about Essendon, the league’s most turnover-prone players, the Hawks’ recent successes, and the high demand for Mac Andrew’s signature.
1. Essendon will not win the premiership this year
In the footy media, accuracy often goes uncredited. My earlier skepticism about Geelong, despite their strong start, was mocked but has since proven justified as they’ve now lost four straight games. My doubts about Essendon will likely face similar ridicule, but I stand by them.
Despite their 8-2-1 record, their low percentage and mediocre rankings in key metrics suggest they aren’t genuine premiership contenders. Their wins have mostly come against lower-ranked teams, and they haven’t performed well against top-eight opponents.
2. The AFL’s biggest turnover machines
Turnover-prone players can be measured by total turnovers, turnover-to-disposal ratio, and turnovers leading to opposition scores. Champion Data reveals the players whose turnovers are most costly. Blake Acres of Carlton tops the list, with his turnovers leading to the most points conceded. Other notable players include Harry Sheezel and Bailey Scott from North Melbourne, and Karl Amon from Hawthorn.
3. The one stat that proves the Hawks are heading in the right direction
Hawthorn, predicted to improve in 2024, has won four of its last six games. Their success is highlighted by their performance in post-clearance groundballs, ranking among the top 20 teams all-time in this metric through the first 11 games. This indicates their work rate and toughness, suggesting a positive trajectory under coach Sam Mitchell.
4. Mac Andrew might have the highest ceiling of any young key defender we’ve seen
Mac Andrew, not yet 21, is already a standout key defender for the Suns. His performance in intercept marks and other defensive measures ranks him among the best in the league. Champion Data indicates he is performing 28% better than expected for a key defender, making him a highly valuable player with a bright future.
5. The worst umpiring decision of season 2024, bar none
The 50m penalty against Laitham Vandermeer in the Bulldogs vs. Swans game was a glaring inconsistency. A similar incident earlier in the game went unpenalized, highlighting a lack of consistency in officiating. This decision potentially cost the Bulldogs a chance to win the game.
6. Player abuse in the wake of busted multis is both pathetic and embarrassing
The rise of sports gambling has led to increased abuse of athletes on social media. Collingwood’s Jack Crisp recently highlighted this issue after receiving abusive messages from disgruntled punters. Blaming athletes for betting losses is both pathetic and entitled behavior, and those who engage in it need to grow up and seek help.
