“Why Memphis Can Break into the First 12-Team College Football Playoff”

For 10 years under the 4-team CFP format, the AAC had to campaign hard to secure a spot in the exclusive postseason tournament. Despite four AAC teams entering bowl season undefeated, only 2021 Cincinnati earned a coveted playoff bid.

The 2024 season brings a seismic shift to the CFP, favoring the AAC. This year, 12 teams will be granted access, including the five highest-ranked conference champions. The AAC champion would have met this criterion in six of the past seven seasons. Though the C-USA champion edged out AAC champion SMU for a New Year’s Six bid last year, historical data suggests this spot is often the AAC’s to lose.

So, who from the AAC is best positioned for the inaugural 12-team playoff? Look to Memphis. The Tigers, fresh off a 10-3 campaign, carry significant momentum into 2024 after beating Mountain West champion Boise State and cruising past Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. They narrowly missed the New Year’s Six, losing close games to Missouri, Tulane, and SMU—all 11-win teams.

Memphis has a winning culture with 10 consecutive non-losing seasons and four double-digit win campaigns. Why can the 2024 Tigers continue this trend and break into the playoff?

Here are five reasons:

1. **Seth Henigan’s Improvement**: Entering his fourth season, Henigan finished fourth in the FBS in passing yards in 2023. His year-to-year growth suggests he will be among the elite FBS quarterbacks this season.

2. **Chandler Martin’s Defensive Impact**: Martin, a First Team All-AAC linebacker, was a dominant force in 2023. With a new defensive coordinator, his adaptability and impact will be crucial.

3. **O-Line Transfers**: Memphis strengthened its offensive line through key transfers, adding experienced starters like Jaylen Nichols from South Carolina. This bolsters the unit’s potential despite losing key players.

4. **Secondary Improvements**: Addressing past weaknesses, Memphis added experienced secondary players through the transfer portal. Any improvement here can significantly boost their playoff chances.

5. **Favorable Schedule**: Memphis’s schedule includes challenging non-conference games against Troy and Florida State. Winning these and the AAC championship could secure a playoff spot, even with a loss or two.

With these factors, Memphis is well-positioned to compete for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff.