Reds’ Playoff Hopes Diminish Below .500, Trade Deadline Decisions Loom

The Reds began the 2024 season as hopeful contenders but now find themselves five games under .500 and 10.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead in the National League Central.

Despite this setback, the tightly contested NL Wild Card race keeps Cincinnati’s playoff hopes alive, as they are only four games out from the third NL Wild Card spot. General manager Brad Meador told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the team’s deadline decisions will depend on their performance in the upcoming weeks.

“We have to wait and see how we finish off this road trip and the homestand coming up, and then we’ll see,” Meador said. “We’d love to be able to add, but realistically, we’ll probably just have to see how it goes.”

The Reds have a chance to control their destiny heading into the All-Star break, facing a series of winnable games. They won the first game of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium and will close the first half against three teams with sub-.500 records.

Following this, Cincinnati will begin a 10-game homestand against the Tigers, Rockies, and Marlins. They will start the second half with a nine-game road trip through Washington, Atlanta, and St. Petersburg before a home series against the Cubs on July 29, just before the July 30 trade deadline.

This stretch of games is crucial for the Reds. A winning streak could push them above .500 and into the Wild Card race, while a poor performance could end their postseason hopes. If they play around .500 until the deadline, the front office will face tough decisions. For now, Meador mentioned “vague” discussions exploring both buying and selling.

Key trade candidates for the Reds include Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with five homers and eight steals, showing his best K-BB profile since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. Montas, on a one-year, $16MM contract, has a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 15 starts. His velocity and strikeouts have improved recently, making him a potential trade target for teams needing a mid-rotation starter.

Other potential trade pieces include relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims, and Brent Suter, who are all free agents at the end of the season. Additionally, veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez, both on two-year contracts with player options for the second year, could be challenging to trade due to their contract clauses.

The Reds have a window of winnable games to prove that adding pieces is the right move. Cincinnati has received little production from the outfield, designated hitter, and first base this season. Adding a bat to boost the offense could be beneficial, provided the Reds can stay competitive in the coming weeks.