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Lincoln Riley’s days at USC are Numbered.

Head coach Lincoln Riley of the USC Trojans

There was a widespread belief that former Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley left his comfortable position at OU three seasons ago because he feared that the fun ride and glory would be over for the Sooners when they went to the SEC.

Riley sought greener pastures (pun intended), leaving the plains of Oklahoma for the sunshine and glamour of Los Angeles, embracing the history and tradition of USC football. The assumption was that the move to USC offered a clearer path to a conference championship and the College Football Playoff than the impending SEC gauntlet.

However, after a couple of up-and-down seasons at USC and the dissolution of the conference he had hoped to dominate, Riley finds himself facing a challenge similar to the one he tried to avoid. USC is now a member of the Big Ten Conference, contending with a schedule nearly as brutal as the one Oklahoma will face in the SEC over the next two seasons.

Riley’s stock and favor in Oklahoma plummeted immediately when he figuratively kicked Sooner fans, players, and administration in the teeth by leaving town with little notice. One state legislator even proposed naming the last three inches of state highway 325 exiting Oklahoma the “Lincoln Riley Highway.”

Riley made a lot of enemies, not just in the Sooner State, when he turned his back on OU football. Since then, it seems he has gained even more critics over how things have been handled within the USC program. Perhaps the most outspoken critic of Riley in recent seasons has been Paul Finebaum, a sports columnist and radio-TV personality for ESPN who largely covers major sports in the SEC. Finebaum has also been critical of Oklahoma football during the Bob Stoops era.

Speaking on his radio shows and TV segments in recent weeks, Finebaum has increased his criticism of Riley’s future at USC, suggesting that the writing may already be on the wall and that the 2024 season could be Riley’s swan song in his dream college coaching job.

“I mean, I think it’s over for Lincoln Riley. To me, he’s lost control. And once you lose control, you’re like in the middle of quicksand,” Finebaum stated.

Riley has compiled a 19-8 overall record in two seasons at USC. His 2022 Trojan team, with former Sooner and 2023 Heisman winner Caleb Williams at quarterback, went 11-3 and won the Pac-12. However, the bottom appeared to fall out last season, as the Trojans finished 8-5 overall and 5-4 in the conference.

After bringing in top-10 recruiting classes in four of the five seasons he was head coach at Oklahoma, Riley has not been as successful in the last two recruiting cycles at USC. His 2023 class with 22 commitments finished 17th, according to 247Sports, and so far in the 2025 cycle, USC ranks 23rd with just 13 commitments.

Riley hasn’t been as successful in recruiting elite prospects in recent cycles, even in the NIL (name, image, likeness) era. The USC recruiting effort has also suffered a rash of decommitments over the past three weeks. Since June 21, the Trojans have had two top-50 defensive linemen back away from their USC pledge, as well as a top-100 running back.

“I’ve always thought he (Riley) was a good coach, especially on the offensive side,” Finebaum said. “But I don’t think anybody today views him in that same realm.”

Finebaum went on to say that if Riley is let go after this season, he doesn’t see a path back for him. “I think his only way back is as a coordinator.”

That seems a bit over the top, given Riley’s record and stellar reputation as an offensive magician and his history in recruiting and coaching Heisman-winning quarterbacks. But the brutal truth is that this is probably a make-or-break season for the coach many Sooner fans now refer to simply as “Muleshoe,” in reference to Riley’s Texas hometown.

Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione threw out a not-so-subtle jab at the former OU head coach during the Sooner celebration in Norman on July 1, the first official day as a member of the SEC:

“I will tell you without reservation that every (OU) head coach that we talked to was excited (about the move to the SEC),” Castiglione said. “The ones that weren’t aren’t here anymore.

“You either gotta accept it or not,” he added. “This is Oklahoma. Get with it, or get on with it.”

As Riley navigates this crucial season, the pressure is on to prove that his decision to leave Oklahoma was not a mistake and that he can restore USC to its former glory amidst the challenges of a new conference and heightened expectations.

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