When news emerged in early December 2018 that the St. Louis Cardinals had acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cardinals fans celebrated. For the first time in seven years, the team had secured one of the top first basemen in baseball. The acquisition required a significant trade, including key starting pitcher Luke Weaver and promising catcher Carson Kelly, but John Mozeliak was ready to make the deal.
Shortly after, it was announced that Goldschmidt would receive a 5-year, $130 million extension with various incentives and bonuses. This move provided the Cardinals with a reliable middle-of-the-order bat for his age-31 through age-36 seasons.
Since joining the Cardinals, Goldschmidt has consistently performed well, finishing in the top 20 of MVP voting four times, winning the MVP award in 2022, and earning a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and an All-Star appearance. Although he hasn’t accumulated as many accolades as he approaches the end of his six-year stint with the Cardinals, his performance has been impressive.
Goldschmidt boasts a .279/.364/.483 slash line with an .847 OPS and a 132 OPS+ in his time with St. Louis, meaning he has been 32% better than the average hitter. Defensively, he has recorded 12 outs above average and 15 defensive runs saved over six years, showcasing his above-average defensive skills at first base. Given these factors, it’s worth considering what grade the Paul Goldschmidt contract extension deserves.
Paul Goldschmidt’s extension merits an A- grade.
Over the past five seasons, Paul Goldschmidt has contributed 17.2 fWAR, averaging just over 3.5 fWAR per year, making him a consistently reliable player. This includes the 2020 season, in which he played 58 games. If we adjust his 2.1 fWAR from that year to a full season, it projects to a 6-WAR season, increasing his total value over the contract to 21.2 fWAR over five years, or just above 4 fWAR per season.
Although the value of one win above replacement (WAR) has varied, Bleacher Report estimates that a hitter’s WAR was worth approximately $5.7 million based on recent offseason spending. According to this calculation, Goldschmidt’s contract should have been about $120.84 million over five years. The Cardinals paid $10 million more than this estimate, but there is still time for Goldschmidt to increase his value this year. Currently at 0.0 fWAR, a strong second half could improve his overall value.
The value of WAR fluctuates annually, but Goldschmidt’s contributions have been invaluable to the Cardinals. From 2020-2024, he has accumulated the second-most fWAR among qualified first basemen, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He also ranks third in wRC+, fifth in home runs, sixth in RBIs, and fifth in OPS.
This offseason, discussions about Paul Goldschmidt’s contract extension have been put on hold, with trade talks previously surrounding him now quieted as the Cardinals position themselves in the postseason race.
While the 2023 and 2024 seasons have been less productive for the future Hall of Famer, Goldschmidt has still delivered significant value from first base throughout his extension. As fans consider the future without him, they can appreciate having witnessed one of the best first basemen in the sport over the past five years.
