Why Waiving Kevin Kiermaier is Wishful Thinking and Its Impact on the Blue Jays Lineup

The Toronto Blue Jays might be coming off back-to-back series victories, but their recent success has come too little, too late to avoid a sell-off at this year’s trade deadline.

With an 8-1/2 game deficit in the American League wild card standings entering play Friday, the question isn’t whether the Jays will be sellers prior to July 30, but just how aggressive they’ll be in trying to ship veteran players out of town.

That process appears to be well underway with word this week that Gold Glove center fielder Kevin Kiermaier has been placed on waivers. Kiermaier is now eligible to be claimed by any team that is willing to pick up the approximate $4.5 million (U.S.) remaining on this year’s salary.

Kiermaier’s subpar production this season means he’s expected to clear waivers. While the 34-year-old remains an elite defender, his woeful .238 average and .533 on-base plus slugging percentage doesn’t offer much value at such an inflated cost.

From the Jays’ perspective, it’s a procedural move that comes with a dose of wishful thinking. If another team claimed Kiermaier, it would allow the Jays to shed salary and increase their odds of being able to duck under the competitive balance tax threshold before the end of the season.

According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, the Jays are approximately $10.3 million above this year’s $237 million luxury tax marker. Since this would be the second consecutive year the Jays have exceeded the threshold, overages are set to be taxed at 30 percent.

If the Jays were to exceed the CBT for a third straight season, the tax jumps to 50 percent. By getting under, the penalty level would be reset to 20 percent next season and it would improve their draft pick compensation if one of their free agents receives a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

Having another team claim Kiermaier and assume his remaining salary wouldn’t be nearly enough to get under the tax, but it would at least get the Jays partway there. Additional funds could then be freed up by trading other veterans such as Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, and Yimi Garcia prior to the July 30 deadline.

If Kiermaier goes unclaimed, the Jays could release him, but his remaining salary would still count towards the CBT. A more likely scenario would see the Jays hang onto him for now and try to trade him in the coming weeks while chipping in additional money to facilitate a deal.

Kiermaier remains with the Jays while this current situation plays out. He was informed of the club’s decision late Thursday night and then traveled with his teammates to Arizona, where he’ll be available for this weekend’s three-game series against the Diamondbacks.

“Being through this for the first time in my career, I don’t know what to expect, but I know what I need to do when I show up to the field (Friday),” Kiermaier told Sportsnet. “Get ready to play and just keep plugging away.”

Regardless of whether Kiermaier is claimed, his time with the Jays appears to be nearing an end. The waiver period lasts for two days, and even if the club decides against releasing him — choosing to explore the trade market instead — he likely won’t be with the team in August.

Daulton Varsho is set to take over full-time duties in center, which would free up left field for Davis Schneider. That would allow the Jays to give regular playing time to Spencer Horwitz at second base while also mixing in the recently called-up Leo Jimenez and utilityman Ernie Clement.

Kiermaier initially joined the Jays prior to the 2023 season on a one-year deal worth $9 million. He exceeded expectations by posting a .741 OPS across 129 games but was unable to replicate that success after being re-signed to a one-year deal during the off-season. He could still be a useful bench piece on a contending team but is likely no longer viewed as an option to start.