Corbin Burnes #39 of the Baltimore Orioles
As the New York Mets grapple with their 2024 National League wild-card hopes, speculation about their winter strategy is already heating up. With the team fighting to secure a playoff berth, focus is shifting towards potential Hot Stove moves. One name emerging as a strong candidate for the Mets’ offseason wish list is Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post stirred the pot during an August 28 Bleacher Report live stream, suggesting that the Mets might indeed pursue Burnes this winter. “I think the Mets are certainly going to be in play for Corbin Burnes,” Heyman said. “Let’s keep in mind: Luis Severino is a free agent. Jose Quintana is a free agent. Sean Manaea will be a free agent as well because he has that opt-out for $13.5 million. So, we got three prime free agents for the Mets, and Corbin Burnes is the top free-agent pitcher.”
Heyman also mentioned another potential target, left-handed Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, as a possible addition to bolster New York’s rotation for 2025. The Mets’ president of baseball operations, David Stearns, could have his work cut out for him if he wants to land either of these top-tier arms.
Corbin Burnes: A Game-Changer for the Mets’ Rotation
Burnes, who will turn 30 in 2024, has been a dominant force on the mound since his breakout 2020 season. This year, he earned his fourth consecutive All-Star selection, boasting a 3.23 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts in 164.1 innings. Over his career, Burnes has accumulated a 49-29 record with a stellar 2.94 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and 915 strikeouts across 786.2 innings. His 21.0 WAR since 2020 is the second-highest among starting pitchers, according to FanGraphs.
Adding Burnes to the Mets’ rotation would provide a significant boost and help solidify the top of their pitching staff for years to come. Currently, the Mets’ rotation has been a mix of short-term solutions, including Quintana, Severino, and Manaea, with only Kodai Senga providing a long-term option. However, Senga’s 2024 season has been plagued by injuries, limiting him to just 5.1 innings due to two separate trips to the injured list. Despite this, the Mets remain in playoff contention, standing at 69-64 and just four games out of the final NL Wild Card spot as of August 29.
The Mets’ Offseason Dilemma: Prioritizing Alonso and Soto
The Mets’ pursuit of Burnes will be influenced by other factors, particularly their decisions regarding first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Juan Soto. Alonso, a homegrown star, is expected to command a contract of at least $200 million this winter. Soto, meanwhile, could potentially fetch a deal upwards of $500 million, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale previously noted that Alonso’s contract could exceed $200 million, and with Soto’s floor set at around $500 million, Mets owner Steve Cohen faces a significant financial decision. “I bet he goes for both [Alonso and Soto],” one league executive familiar with Cohen’s approach told SNY’s Andy Martino in February.
Should the Mets fail to secure either Alonso or Soto, they might pivot to making a splashy move for their rotation. While landing both sluggers would undoubtedly be a priority, the potential to acquire a top-tier pitcher like Burnes could become a more viable option if the team’s big-money pursuits don’t materialize.
What’s Next for the Mets?
With the Mets’ postseason aspirations still hanging in the balance, and the offseason looming on the horizon, the team’s front office faces a critical few months. Whether they can land Burnes or another high-caliber pitcher, while also navigating the complex negotiations for Alonso and Soto, will shape the trajectory of the franchise. As the winter approaches, Mets fans should brace for a potentially transformative offseason that could redefine the team’s future.
Stay tuned as the Mets’ Hot Stove plans begin to crystallize, with Corbin Burnes and other key targets potentially playing a pivotal role in New York’s quest for sustained success.
