LSU football’s 2024 season is anticipated with high expectations, as the team was projected to finish second in the SEC West in the preseason media poll, a position also reflected in Vegas odds, with the Tigers ranked just behind Alabama. However, while the expectations are significant, this season is Brian Kelly’s second year, which means it’s still in a transitional phase for the program.
Given that the season includes 12 games, there are numerous possible win-loss outcomes. Instead of delving into every possible scenario, let’s explore the main narratives that could emerge this year, ranging from national title hopes to falling short of expectations.
Most Likely Scenario: 9-10 Wins and a New Year’s Six Appearance
Vegas has set LSU’s win total at 9.5, indicating a strong likelihood that the team will achieve between nine and ten victories. In this scenario, LSU performs well against most opponents, avoiding upsets by teams like Mississippi State or Auburn. However, losses are expected against challenging opponents such as Florida State and Alabama. If LSU ends the season with a 10-2 record, it would be a strong candidate for a New Year’s Six bowl game. Even with a 9-3 record, LSU could still have a shot at a NY6 bowl, provided they secure some significant wins.
Best Case Scenario: An Undefeated Season and Top Seed in the Playoff
The ideal outcome would be LSU running the table to finish the regular season 13-0, winning the SEC Championship, and securing the top seed in the College Football Playoff. This would set LSU up against a typically weaker No. 4 seed in the playoff. While an undefeated season is challenging, LSU has the talent to make it possible. Key players like quarterback, left tackle, receiver, and standout defensive player Harold Perkins could propel the team to peak performance throughout the season.
Good Enough Scenario: Sneaking into the Playoff
LSU’s demanding schedule includes crucial games against Florida State and Alabama, which offer prime opportunities to build a strong resume. If LSU wins these key games, they could afford some leeway. A 12-0 record heading into the SEC Championship would likely guarantee a playoff spot. Even with a 12-1 record, if the loss is to Georgia, LSU would still have a competitive resume. Alternatively, an 11-1 record with a loss to Alabama could also keep them in playoff contention, depending on other factors.
Deja Vu Scenario: A Repeat of 2022
The 2022 season for LSU had its ups and downs, starting with a loss to Florida State but including significant victories over Ole Miss and Alabama. The season ultimately ended with losses to Texas A&M and Georgia, resulting in a 9-4 record. A similar scenario in 2023 could see LSU losing to Florida State again, but still managing to secure wins over strong teams like Alabama, while potentially faltering against opponents like Ole Miss or Auburn. Missing out on a New Year’s Six bowl in this case would be disappointing.
Worst Case Scenario: A Disastrous Season
The worst-case scenario would involve LSU finishing below 8-4, indicating a season marred by injuries and inconsistent performance. Depth issues at linebacker and cornerback, as well as a potential decline in defensive performance, could contribute to such a record. Offensive line problems or injuries could also impact the team’s success. However, with strong quarterback options in Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier, a record of 8-4 or worse seems unlikely. It’s more probable that LSU will achieve a winning season rather than a disappointing one.
