The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing a major crossroads with one of their biggest stars as Mitch Marner approaches unrestricted free agency in July 2025. The winger, who has become a central figure in the Leafs’ lineup, is set to enter the final year of his current contract, sparking heated discussions about what his next deal might look like. As Marner’s future in Toronto remains uncertain, many are wondering if the team will be willing to open up their wallets or risk losing him to the open market.
On The Fan 590’s “Kyper & Bourne”, Sportsnet analysts Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne debated just how much Marner could command in his next contract. Kypreos, always the bold voice in the debate, suggested that the 26-year-old forward could fetch as much as $13-14 million annually—a figure that would put him in the same ballpark as NHL elite players like Leon Draisaitl, who is expected to earn $14 million per season on his next contract with the Edmonton Oilers.
“I think Mitch Marner could be worth close to Leon Draisaitl,” Kypreos said, pointing to the Oilers’ star as a benchmark for Marner’s potential value on the open market.
However, not everyone is ready to give Marner a Draisaitl-like contract. Bourne disagreed, pointing to Marner’s lack of postseason success as a reason why the Leafs shouldn’t break the bank for him. While Marner has put up impressive numbers during the regular season—scoring 26 goals and 85 points in 69 games last season—his playoff performances have been underwhelming. In the Leafs’ disappointing first-round exit, Marner managed just three points in seven games, while Draisaitl helped carry the Oilers all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, posting an eye-popping 31 points in 25 games.
“Look at Leon Draisaitl’s playoff stats,” Bourne said. “To say Mitch Marner is going to be worth what he’s making is asinine.”
The comparison between Marner and Draisaitl highlights the pressure on Marner to prove his worth in the postseason, especially considering that the Leafs have yet to break their longstanding playoff curse with him on the roster. Marner’s regular-season success is undeniable, but his playoff track record has been far less stellar, and that is a factor that cannot be ignored in discussions about his future.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation is the internal salary cap structure that the Leafs already have in place. Team captain Auston Matthews currently earns $13.5 million annually, and it’s hard to imagine the team paying Marner more than Matthews, given their respective roles and status within the organization. Bourne believes that the Leafs will be unwilling to break the scale for Marner, but Kypreos suggested that the open market could be where Marner lands a hefty deal.
“If he goes to a conference final, or he takes Toronto to a Stanley Cup final, then he goes to $14 million,” Kypreos added, emphasizing the potential for Marner’s value to soar if he can elevate the Leafs in the postseason.
Despite the constant rumors swirling about a potential exit for Marner, the winger himself has expressed a desire to stay with the Leafs. At the end of last season, he made it clear that his love for Toronto and the city was unwavering, and that he wanted to stay and continue his career with the franchise.
“I’ve expressed my love for this place, this city,” Marner said in May. “Obviously, I’ve grown up here. We’ll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out… It means the world to me.”
With the clock ticking toward free agency, the pressure is on for both Marner and the Leafs’ front office to come to terms on a deal that reflects his market value, the team’s salary cap situation, and the looming question of whether Marner can take his game to the next level when the stakes are highest. Will the Leafs be able to keep Marner long-term, or will he head to the open market in search of a mega-deal?
As Marner enters the final stretch of his current contract, all eyes will be on how both he and the Leafs navigate these next crucial years. The upcoming seasons will not only shape Marner’s future but could also decide the direction of the Maple Leafs as they continue their quest for playoff success.
