Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Zack Wheeler (45)
Zack Wheeler’s Cy Young Window Is Closing—Can He Finally Get His Due?
Few players in Major League Baseball have been as dominant and underappreciated in award races as Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Despite establishing himself as one of the sport’s premier arms, Wheeler has yet to capture a Cy Young Award—a glaring omission from his otherwise stellar résumé.
Now, as he heads into his age-35 season, 2025 may represent his best—and perhaps last—real shot at claiming the honor.
A Half-Decade of Dominance
Wheeler’s emergence as an elite starter began in 2018 with the New York Mets, but it wasn’t until he signed with Philadelphia in 2020 that he fully realized his potential. Since then, he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of his five seasons while logging at least 32 starts in three of the last four.
He’s been a Cy Young runner-up twice, most recently in 2024 when Atlanta Braves veteran Chris Sale edged him out. Sale, who led the National League in wins, ERA, ERA+, and bWAR, deserved the award, leaving little room for debate.
But 2021? That’s another story.
The 2021 Cy Young Snub
In one of the closest Cy Young races in recent memory, Wheeler finished second to Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. The Phillies ace led all NL pitchers with a 7.5 bWAR, towering over Burnes’ 5.3 mark. In terms of total value, it wasn’t close.
However, Burnes benefited from superior team success, as the Brewers won 95 games while the Phillies missed the postseason at 82-80. That undoubtedly swayed voters.
While WAR isn’t the sole determining factor, it’s arguably the best overall measure of a player’s impact. In this case, Wheeler had a legitimate claim to the award, making his second-place finish feel like a robbery that still lingers in baseball debates today.
The Biggest Roadblock: Paul Skenes
Even if Wheeler maintains his dominance in 2025, he’ll have to contend with a generational talent standing in his way—Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
Skenes is the type of pitcher who looks like a video game creation. Armed with an upper-90s fastball and devastating secondary pitches, the 22-year-old phenom took MLB by storm in 2024, finishing third in Cy Young voting while winning NL Rookie of the Year.
His numbers were absurd:
- 11-3 record
- 1.96 ERA
- 0.947 WHIP
- 5.9 bWAR in just 23 starts
Barring injury, it’s a matter of when—not if—Skenes wins a Cy Young. The only question is whether he’ll snatch his first in 2025 at Wheeler’s expense.
A Race Against Time
The biggest advantage Wheeler holds over Skenes? Team success. The Phillies are a perennial contender, while the Pirates—despite Skenes’ brilliance—aren’t guaranteed to be in the playoff hunt. If Pittsburgh struggles, it could mirror Wheeler’s own experience in 2021, where an individual performance was overshadowed by a weaker team record.
There’s also a chance that award voters, aware of Wheeler’s prior snub, finally give him his due. Baseball history has seen its fair share of “makeup” awards, where a deserving player wins in a year they might not have been the absolute best as a form of recognition for past injustices.
Wheeler’s window is closing. He hasn’t shown signs of decline yet, but father time remains undefeated. If he’s ever going to claim the Cy Young that’s eluded him, 2025 may be his final, best opportunity.
