David Bednar #51 of the Pittsburgh Pirates
David Bednar’s Struggles Raise Big Questions for the Pirates’ Bullpen
It’s only been a few games into the season, but the Pittsburgh Pirates already have a closer controversy brewing. David Bednar, once a sure thing in the ninth inning, is suddenly looking shaky—and the bigger problem is that Pittsburgh has no clear fallback plan if he continues to struggle.
Bednar’s Early-Season Woes
The concerns surrounding Bednar aren’t just about one bad outing. His struggles late in 2024 have seemingly carried over, and Friday night’s appearance only added to the growing unease. After giving up a crucial two-run homer that nearly cost the Pirates a win, questions about his ability to hold onto the closer role are becoming louder.
A deeper dive into his numbers reveals some troubling trends:
- Second-half ERA in 2024: 4.85
- Home run rate over last 20 outings: 1.70 HR/9
- Fastball whiff rate: Down nearly 6% from his dominant 2022 season
These aren’t just small sample-size anomalies—they indicate a real downward trend that could put his job in jeopardy.
Who Could Replace Him?
This is where the Pirates have a major problem. They didn’t bring in a veteran backup option, assuming Bednar would perform well enough to be a trade piece by midseason. Now, they’re stuck scrambling for solutions.
- Colin Holderman: Solid arm but lacks ninth-inning experience and has battled command issues.
- Dauri Moreta: Power fastball but inconsistent with location and control.
At the moment, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a proven closer-in-waiting, making this situation even more unpredictable.
Betting Implications: Fading the Pirates Late
Bednar’s issues don’t just impact the Pirates on the field—they also have ramifications for bettors:
- Avoid Pirates run-line bets when leading late: With their closer situation unstable, even late-game leads are at risk.
- Live betting strategy: If Pittsburgh has a slim lead heading into the 8th, there could be value in betting against them.
- Totals betting: Unders are risky, as the bullpen’s volatility could lead to late-game runs.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
Bednar remains the closer for now, but his grip on the role is slipping fast. If you’re in a fantasy league, it might be time to stash a potential replacement—even if the Pirates haven’t identified one yet.
What’s Next?
While it’s too early to call this a full-blown crisis, the warning signs are there. If Bednar doesn’t clean up his command and limit home runs, he may not be the Pirates’ closer by June. Pittsburgh needs to find a backup plan fast, or late-game meltdowns could become a recurring theme this season.
For now, the best strategy is to monitor Bednar’s outings closely—because his days as the Pirates’ closer could be numbered.
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