With the MLB trade deadline still weeks away, the San Diego Padres have already made significant moves, acquiring reigning batting champion Luis Arraez in May and ace starter Dylan Cease in March.
However, the Padres cannot afford to pause their efforts. The team has invested over $1.25 billion in six star players, and the upcoming deadline represents one of their final opportunities to leverage this spending effectively.
Since taking the helm in 2014, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has secured extensive contracts for key players: Joe Musgrove with a five-year, $100 million deal through 2027; Yu Darvish with a six-year, $108 million contract through 2028; Jake Cronenworth with a seven-year, $80 million contract through 2030; Manny Machado with an 11-year, $350 million deal through 2033; Xander Bogaerts with an 11-year, $280 million contract through 2033; and Fernando Tatis Jr. with a 14-year, $340 million contract through 2034.
Currently, the Padres rank 15th in spending this season, but they are committed to having the largest payrolls in MLB for 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030. However, the peak performance windows for many of their high-paid players appear to be closing, making this trade deadline a crucial opportunity to maximize their investments.
Fernando Tatis Jr. might still have his best years ahead. In 308 at-bats this season, he has posted a .279/.354/.821 slash line, improving on his MVP-caliber performance from last year before an injury that could sideline him until late July. Jake Cronenworth has maintained steady performance with a .251/.330/.421 career slash line.
Manny Machado has struggled with a .268/.318/.408 line and leads the league in double plays. Xander Bogaerts, who fractured his shoulder in May and was moved off shortstop, has struggled with a .219 batting average since the switch. Both Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are currently on the injured list.
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The Padres have been bolstered by impressive performances from some of their lower-paid players. Currently, they hold a winning record and are solidly positioned within a Wild Card playoff spot.
Outfielder Jurickson Profar, who is on a $1 million one-year contract, tops the National League in on-base percentage. Luis Arraez, making $588,744 this year and with another year of arbitration eligibility remaining, leads all of MLB in total hits.
Rookie Jackson Merrill, earning $740,000 this season, has made a strong case for Rookie of the Year. Additionally, Matt Waldron, who is earning $741,800 in his first arbitration year, has perplexed hitters with his distinctive knuckleball.
Preller’s substantial long-term financial commitments have intensified the pressure to win now, although it’s been the team’s cost-effective players that have positioned them for success.
“They know when they signed these contracts, it’s go time now. You’ve got to win,” New York Post columnist Joel Sherman commented on MLB Network. “I think AJ Preller is always aggressive as a GM, but with so much money invested, there’s pressure for results.”
While the Padres lead the National League in hits and batting average and rank high in on-base percentage and slugging, they are struggling with pitching, sitting near the bottom in ERA and opponents’ batting average.
Can Preller further enhance the roster? He has valuable prospects to trade, but adding more to the team’s financial commitments might be impractical.
“San Diego has four Top 100 prospects—Ethan Salas (No. 4), Robby Snelling (No. 24), Dylan Lesko (No. 68), and Leodalis De Vries (No. 78)—but is there a pitcher available that would make Preller part with any of these players?” MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand asked. “The Padres are also unlikely to absorb large salaries, as they are aiming to stay under the CBT threshold.”
Given that the team’s success has been driven by its lower-salaried players, managing within these financial constraints could be crucial for the Padres to capitalize on their substantial long-term investments.
