Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros
The New York Yankees already have one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball at the top of their rotation in Gerrit Cole, who remains a Cy Young contender year in and year out. But despite the strength of their ace, some believe the Yankees should look to add another high-caliber arm this offseason — and Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer thinks that arm should be none other than Justin Verlander.
Rymer’s bold prediction on November 14 suggests the Yankees will sign the future Hall of Famer to a one-year, $15 million contract this winter. While Verlander, who turns 42 in February, might not be the pitcher he once was, Rymer believes the Yankees could roll the dice on a veteran with a proven track record of resilience and greatness.
Verlander’s 2024 Struggles: A Red Flag or an Outlier?
The case for signing Verlander rests, in part, on the fact that he’s been one of the most successful pitchers of his generation. The three-time Cy Young winner (2011, 2019, and 2022) showed he still had plenty left in the tank after missing the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery. His dominant 2022 campaign, which included a 1.75 ERA and 185 strikeouts over 175 innings, was a testament to his elite talent and determination.
But in 2024, things took a noticeable turn for the worse. Verlander posted a pedestrian 5.48 ERA in 17 starts for the Houston Astros, his worst ERA since 2008. His fastball velocity dipped to an average of 93.5 mph (a career-low) and his strikeout rate plummeted to just 7.4 K/9 — the lowest mark of his career since 2014. He also struggled with walks and home runs, allowing 3.4 walks and 1.3 home runs per 9 innings — both career highs.
While Verlander has publicly stated that he has “a lot more to give,” Rymer suggests there’s considerable risk involved in signing a pitcher on the wrong side of 40 who is coming off a subpar season. However, Rymer argues that the upside still exists, as there is “not much downside in a team paying to find out” if Verlander can rebound.
What Verlander Could Bring to the Yankees
While Verlander’s 2024 numbers raise questions, his track record of resilience and success cannot be ignored. In addition to his three Cy Young awards, he was also the 2011 American League MVP — a testament to the peak of his powers.
For the Yankees, the addition of a veteran like Verlander could add depth and experience to an already solid rotation, especially in a post-Gerrit Cole world (whenever that may come). While Cole has solidified himself as the Yankees’ ace, Verlander could serve as a stabilizing force behind him, even if he’s no longer the dominant pitcher he was in his prime.
Moreover, Verlander has always excelled in high-pressure situations — a trait that is invaluable for a team with postseason aspirations like the Yankees. His leadership in the clubhouse and his vast postseason experience (including two World Series championships with the Astros) could help elevate the team’s pitching staff in the late stages of the season.
However, as Rymer points out, the Yankees would need to have other options lined up in case Verlander’s 2024 struggles were a sign of things to come. With multiple aging veterans already under contract (Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, and Nestor Cortes) for the 2025 season, the Yankees would have to manage their pitching depth carefully.
The Bigger Picture: A Crowded Free Agent Market
Whether the Yankees will go after Verlander depends, in part, on the broader landscape of the starting pitching market this offseason. Along with Verlander, several other notable pitchers are expected to hit free agency, and Rymer points to three potential alternatives who could also appeal to the Yankees.
– Blake Snell – The 2023 NL Cy Young winner, who had an exceptional year with the San Diego Padres, would give the Yankees another dynamic left-handed option. Snell’s ability to rack up strikeouts and limit damage could complement Cole and create a devastating 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
– Jack Flaherty – Once considered one of the rising stars of the pitching world, Flaherty has battled injuries in recent seasons but remains an intriguing bounce-back candidate. If he regains his pre-injury form, Flaherty could provide valuable depth.
– Roki Sasaki – The Japanese right-hander has taken the baseball world by storm with his exceptional stuff and could be an exciting, if somewhat risky, addition. A young star with the potential to be an ace, Sasaki would be a fascinating addition to the Yankees’ rotation.
However, Rymer suggests that if the Yankees were to land one of these pitchers, they probably wouldn’t also pursue Verlander. With Cole locked into his contract through 2028, and several other veteran arms already committed for 2025, the Yankees are already on the hook for a significant amount of money invested in their rotation. Adding Verlander could mean bypassing other potential targets or tying up valuable resources in a gamble.
The Verdict: A Low-Risk, High-Reward Move?
The idea of signing Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million deal this offseason is certainly a fascinating one. While his 2024 season was far from his best, the potential upside of adding a future Hall of Famer with postseason pedigree makes it a move worth considering.
For the Yankees, the decision might ultimately come down to their confidence in Verlander’s ability to bounce back. If they believe that his struggles last season were a blip rather than the beginning of the end, then taking a one-year flyer on him could be a savvy move.
But with a crowded market and several other potential pitching targets, it remains to be seen whether Verlander will be the right fit for the Yankees’ rotation next season. It’s clear, though, that a team with the Yankees’ resources and aspirations could do a lot worse than taking a low-risk chance on one of the game’s all-time greats.
In the end, the question isn’t whether Verlander is a gamble — it’s whether he’s a gamble worth taking.
