USC Trojans Lead the Race for 2026 Five-Star QB Ryder Lyons

The college football recruiting wars are heating up, and the spotlight is firmly on one of the most coveted prospects in the 2026 class: five-star quarterback Ryder Lyons from Folsom High School in California. Early projections by On3.com favor the USC Trojans to land the dynamic dual-threat QB, with head coach Lincoln Riley positioned to secure another elite talent for his program.

USC Leads the Pack

On3’s Recruiting Prediction Machine gives USC a staggering 97.9% chance of signing Lyons, leaving little room for competition. The Oregon Ducks, while listed as the second-best option, have less than a 1% chance of landing the California Gatorade Player of the Year, according to the same report.

Lyons’ junior year statistics paint the picture of a game-changing talent. He threw for 3,011 yards, 46 touchdowns, and just six interceptions while completing 68.1% of his passes. Adding to his versatility, Lyons ran for 585 yards and 14 touchdowns, solidifying his reputation as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation.

What Lyons Brings to the Table

Lyons’ skill set fits perfectly with Lincoln Riley’s offensive system at USC. Renowned for developing Heisman-winning quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams, Riley’s ability to nurture elite talent makes USC an enticing destination for Lyons.

The Trojans’ quarterback room already boasts significant talent. After benching Miller Moss late in the 2024 season, USC turned to Jayden Maiava, who led the team into a new chapter. The Trojans also signed five-star quarterback Husan Longstreet as part of their 2025 class, signaling their commitment to remaining a quarterback factory.

Oregon Ducks in the Chase

Despite USC’s commanding lead, the Oregon Ducks remain hopeful. With head coach Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein working to build a powerhouse, the Ducks are preparing for life beyond current starter Dillon Gabriel. Incoming talent like Dante Moore and four-star 2025 recruit Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ensures Oregon’s quarterback depth remains solid.

The Ducks have time on their side, with Lyons’ National Signing Day decision still more than a year away. They’ll need to close the gap significantly and could leverage creative NIL opportunities to attract the Folsom star.

The NIL Factor

In the era of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, landing a top recruit like Lyons requires more than a compelling football program. On3 estimates Lyons’ NIL value at $889,000, reflecting his star power on and off the field. Programs vying for his signature will need to pair their recruiting pitch with lucrative NIL opportunities to stay competitive.

A Bright Future Ahead

Whether it’s USC or another program that ultimately lands Lyons, there’s no denying the massive impact he’ll have at the next level. As one of the most polished and versatile quarterbacks in his class, Lyons is set to elevate whichever team he chooses.

For now, the Trojans appear to have the upper hand, but with Oregon and others lurking, the recruiting battle for Ryder Lyons is far from over.