⚾ A Closer’s Statement Season
CINCINNATI — In the quiet of the locker room after Cincinnati’s postseason exit, Emilio Pagán sat in reflection but also resolve. Free agency looms — yet his message was clear: he doesn’t want it to be a farewell.
“I’d love to run it back with them and take another run at it. Nothing’s guaranteed in this game. We’ll see what happens,” Pagán said, his tone steady.
He did more than talk. In 2025, Pagán delivered arguably the finest season of his career: 32 saves in 38 opportunities, a 2.88 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP over 68⅔ innings. He tied for 5th in MLB in saves while holding hitters to a .168 batting average.
When Cincinnati needed someone to close games, Pagán rose. He made 70 appearances, pitched 10 scoreless innings in his final 10 outings, and even handled four straight days of work late in the season.
🔄 The Risk, the Reward & the Decision
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16 million deal before the 2024 season. At the time, his role was uncertain. In 2024 he was in more of a setup capacity, posting a 4.50 ERA over 38 appearances and missing time with a lat strain.
Now, at age 34 (turning 35 in May), he must fight for another major league contract. His 2025 output gives him leverage — but Cincinnati, in turn, must weigh the durability risks.
Front office voices have been cautious. Nick Krall, Reds’ president of baseball operations, has hinted that budget constraints and bullpen restructuring will influence what gets offered.
Among the current bullpen, there’s promise: Tony Santillán and Graham Ashcraft in setup roles, and young arms like Zach Maxwell, Connor Phillips, and Luis Mey rising fast. Still, none of them have proven closing experience at the major league level.
📊 Digging Into the Metrics
Beyond the box score, Pagán’s 2025 season showed elite control and command. According to Statcast:
-
Hard-hit rate: ~37.0%, modest for a high-leverage reliever.
-
Average exit velocity allowed: ~88.9 mph.
-
Expected wOBA (xwOBA): ~.273 — in line with his strong performance.
These numbers suggest he’s not just lucky — he’s controlling contact and limiting damage. For a team constructing a reliable bullpen, that combination of consistency and composure is gold.
🏛️ The Cultural & Leadership Edge
Pagán isn’t just a statistical weapon; he’s also been a stabilizing influence in the clubhouse. He mentored younger arms, held himself accountable after losses, and represented a veteran presence — qualities the Reds identify as key going forward.
With a playoff berth behind them, Cincinnati is at an inflection point. Re-signing Pagán would signal that the front office bets on continuity and momentum, rather than a full reset.
❓ Q&A: Pagán’s Path Forward
Q: How secure is Pagán’s free agent market?
A: He’ll have options — closers are always in demand — but his age and workload will factor heavily. The Reds likely will test whether they can bring him back in a team-friendly deal.
Q: Could the Reds afford to lose him?
A: Yes — but badly. Without him, the Reds would lack a proven closer and would have to promote or purchase one, igniting bullpen volatility.
Q: Does his 2025 performance justify a long-term contract?
A: Yes, it provides strong leverage. But there remains injury risk. Any deal may include performance protections or shorter terms.
Q: Are the young arms ready to take over?
A: Some are promising, but none have full-season closing experience. Bringing them along under Pagán’s guiding hand would smooth the transition if he departs.
🎯 Final Take
Emilio Pagán’s breakout 2025 season gave him more than numbers — it gave him a narrative. Now, how that narrative continues depends on trust: from the Reds, from other teams, and from himself.
If Cincinnati offers him a deal that balances respect with prudence, they’ll retain not just their closer but a stabilizing force. If not, Pagán may walk into someone’s bullpen and replicate his career year elsewhere.
Either way, “running it back” is not just a line for Pagán — it’s the defining question of his future.
About The Author
