Greg Penner would be wise to draw lessons from historical events in the ongoing Payton-Wilson dispute.

Hopefully, Greg Penner possesses a keen awareness of historical events, and as the new owner of the Broncos, he recognizes the valuable lessons that can be gleaned from the past. If he does, he stands a better chance of avoiding a significant error this offseason.

Last week, the Broncos made a noteworthy decision regarding their quarterback position. Russell Wilson was benched, with Jarrett Stidham taking on the role of the starter. This announcement held significant implications, particularly heading into a crucial game against the Chargers and impacting the remaining two games of the season. The move became even more substantial when considering the potential long-term consequences for Denver, especially as the team remained mathematically in contention for its first postseason appearance in eight years.

Unless there’s a change of heart from both parties, an unlikely scenario given the recent contentious exchanges, Russell Wilson’s time in a Broncos uniform is set to conclude on Sunday. His stint in the Mile High City will be a brief two seasons, ending even before the quarterback’s five-year extension, signed upon his acquisition by the Broncos in March 2022, takes effect.

Initially brought in as the solution to Denver’s prolonged search for a successor to Peyton Manning, Wilson is now poised to join a roster of quarterbacks who attempted, but failed, to fill the shoes of the Hall of Fame QB. However, he stands out as the most expensive example.

In the trade with the Seahawks, the Broncos relinquished two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and three players (Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, and Drew Lock). Additionally, they inked Wilson to a substantial $245 million contract extension, with $165 million guaranteed.

Despite the significant investment, Wilson’s performance in Denver fell short of expectations. Over 30 starts, he achieved an 11-19 record, a far cry from what was envisioned when the deal was finalized—a disappointment for the Broncos, Wilson, and fans alike.

This reality places the Broncos at a pivotal juncture. They are already committed to paying their quarterback $39 million for the 2024 season, regardless of whether he plays for them or not. If Wilson remains on the roster five days into mid-March, they would also incur an additional $37 million for 2025.

The team faces a challenging decision: should they accept the financial hit and part ways now, incurring $85 million in dead cap over the next two seasons? Alternatively, they could retain Wilson, paying him $76 million over the next two seasons, with the potential for a $31 million dead cap if they decide to move on before the 2026 season.

Neither option presents an ideal scenario, but one stands out as the more favorable choice, and unfortunately, it seems the Broncos are opting for the less promising path with no potential upside. The reason behind this decision appears to be Greg Penner aligning himself with Sean Payton in the ongoing coach-quarterback conflict in Denver.

Drawing parallels to the situation in 1991 when Dan Reeves contemplated trading John Elway, there are striking similarities. Reeves, frustrated with Elway’s unpredictable and off-script style of play, explored potential deals, including one with the Redskins for offensive tackle Jim Lachey. The Broncos were coming off a 5-11 season, and Reeves believed a change of scenery might benefit both parties.

Reeves sought a quarterback who would adhere to his system, which he brought from Dallas and highly valued. He wanted the precision demanded by Tom Landry, something Elway, with his penchant for improvisation, couldn’t consistently provide in the first eight years of his career. While Elway was known for spectacular plays outside the pocket, he lacked the finesse of a traditional pocket passer.

In the current scenario, Sean Payton is experiencing similar frustrations with Russell Wilson. Despite Wilson’s ability to rescue the team with extraordinary plays, Payton desires a quarterback who stays in the pocket, progresses through reads, and executes the strategic plans devised on the whiteboard.

This is where Jarrett Stidham comes into play. In 1991, had Reeves had his way, it would have been Gary Kubiak or Tommy Maddox entering the scene—quarterbacks who, while lacking in athleticism and a rocket arm, could effectively operate within the established system, aligning with what Reeves envisioned. The implication here is that Stidham could offer a more structured and system-oriented approach, akin to what Payton desires in the current quarterback dynamic.

He’s not the sole head coach to fall into this trap; this error has occurred twice before.

In 1999, Mike Shanahan opted to defend consecutive Super Bowl titles with the untested Brian Griese instead of Bubby Brister, who had a flawless 4-0 record in place of Elway during the Broncos’ second championship season. Shanahan’s rationale was Griese’s better execution of his system, as Brister struggled to articulate plays in the huddle.

Similarly, in 2016, Kubiak chose Trevor Siemian to lead the defense of Denver’s championship, despite Siemian having taken only one NFL snap – a kneel-down in the previous season. Mark Sanchez, the veteran in camp that year, faltered in the preseason, and his higher cost influenced Kubiak’s decision.

Contrastingly, when Reeves considered trading Elway, owner Pat Bowlen intervened, refusing to let the Hall of Fame quarterback and franchise face depart.

However, when Shanahan and Kubiak made similar errors, Bowlen, or the subsequent decision-makers, did not intervene, highlighting a recurring theme. The lesson to be learned is clear: Greg Penner should heed this history. When a head coach prioritizes their system over a player, it reflects an inflated ego.

Offensive-minded coaches cherish the strategies they devise on their whiteboards, but when the execution falters, they become frustrated. The danger lies in their insistence on perfection, overlooking the fact that football is played on the field, not on paper. It’s not about being a robotic quarterback; the game’s unpredictability demands adaptability. A team

may construct an impressive 12-play, 80-yard drive, but at some point, challenges will arise, requiring players to make crucial plays when needed. The focus should be on dynamic, adaptable play rather than rigid adherence to a predefined system.

Great quarterbacks possess the ability to create “wow” moments, demonstrating playmaking skills that elevate their team’s offense. However, game managers often fall short in this regard, leading to mediocre offensive performances. The Broncos, with Jarrett Stidham at the helm, managed only 16 points in his debut despite favorable field position from a fumble and a botched fake punt.

To achieve greatness on offense, a team needs a leader capable of delivering extraordinary moments. Russell Wilson has exhibited such moments in Denver, including multiple game-winning drives, a deep ball to Courtland Sutton in Houston, and a comeback against the Patriots on Christmas Eve. However, unlocking Wilson’s full potential would require a departure from Sean Payton’s rigid system and a willingness to adapt to the strengths of the players.

In contrast to Payton’s traditional approach, the successful formula in today’s NFL involves constant adaptation and evolution. Coaches like Mike McDaniel emphasize flexibility, adjusting schemes to suit player strengths rather than forcing a predefined system onto the team. If the Broncos embraced this approach, they would fully commit to Wilson, tailoring the offense to his strengths and surrounding him with better skill position players.

The potential decision to side with Payton over Wilson raises questions, as Payton has faced challenges in his first year on the job, including public criticism of his predecessor, questionable in-game decisions, and a series of fumbles. Despite Payton’s past success with Drew Brees in New Orleans, the landscape has changed, and the current NFL champions like the Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, and Chiefs have built their offenses around the unique strengths of their quarterbacks.

The debate over system versus talent seems unnecessary, as the wise choice is evident: prioritize talent over a rigid system. However, the Broncos appear poised to go against this wisdom, risking a return to quarterback uncertainty reminiscent of the post-Super Bowl 50 years.

The hope is that Greg Penner, the Broncos’ decision-maker, learns from history and avoids repeating past mistakes. The potential decision to favor system over talent could lead the team into a quarterback purgatory reminiscent of their six years post-Super Bowl 50.