The Dallas Cowboys kick off their postseason on Sunday, Jan. 14, at 3:30 p.m. CST, hosting the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round. Not since the 1995-96 season, the year of their fifth Super Bowl triumph, have the Cowboys advanced to an NFC Championship.
Following that Super Bowl victory, Dallas has posted a playoff record of 5-12, with a 4-6 performance in the last 10 playoff appearances. Despite this, the Cowboys finished the regular season strongly with a 7-2 record in their final nine games, securing the two seed in the NFC. Historically, the two seed has claimed 10 Super Bowls since 1976, accounting for a success rate of 20.8%. In the last five years, the two seed stands out as the only seed with multiple Super Bowl victories (two). The question lingers: Can Dallas realistically make it to the Super Bowl? Here are both perspectives — why they have a shot and why they might face challenges.
Reasons Dallas has a Super Bowl shot:
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb
Currently, there’s a compelling case for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb being regarded as the premier quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL. Prescott stands as the second-favorite for the MVP title, while Lamb is delivering a record-breaking season for wide receivers in the franchise’s history. Notably, the last five Super Bowl champions all featured an exceptional quarterback-receiver combination.
Among these champions, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce appeared twice, while Tom Brady achieved it twice with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and then with Julian Edelman. The most recent pairing was Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, with Kupp putting up one of the finest seasons for a wide receiver.
Examining the statistics, the winning receivers in these Super Bowl seasons averaged 105.3 catches, 1,326 receiving yards, and 10.6 touchdowns. Lamb’s impressive season recorded 135 catches, 1,749 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Likewise, the winning quarterbacks averaged 4,631 passing yards, 35.4 touchdowns, and 11.4 interceptions during their successful seasons. Prescott’s season aligns closely with these figures, amassing 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. While recognizing that quarterback play involves more than just statistics, and Super Bowl success relies on various factors, the prevalence of a dynamic quarterback-receiver duo is evident in recent championship teams.
The Cowboys boast a formidable defense.
The Cowboys possess one of the league’s premier defenses, spearheaded by Micah Parsons, a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. A robust defense is crucial for any team not featuring a player of Mahomes’ caliber. In 2022, the Chiefs ended a nine-year streak of Super Bowl teams with top-10 scoring defenses. Looking at the Super Bowl winners from the 2000s, 17 out of 23 had defenses ranking in the top 10 for points allowed.
Dallas currently holds the fifth position in points allowed this season. The defensive strength is further reinforced by the presence of cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland alongside Parsons. Gilmore, a key contributor to the 2019 Super Bowl-winning New England Patriots, and Bland, who led the league in interceptions (nine) and set a new record for pick-sixes (five), add significant depth to the defensive lineup.
Dallas gains an advantage from playing on their home field.
The Cowboys show a significant disparity in performance based on their playing location this season. They maintain an unblemished record of 8-0 when playing on their home turf but struggle with a 4-5 record on the road. The team has achieved a remarkable 16 consecutive wins in their home games. As the second seed in the NFC, the Cowboys, if successful in winning two consecutive games to advance to the NFC Championship, are likely to face the San Francisco 49ers. Notably, the 49ers secured a decisive victory over the Cowboys with a score of 42-10 in Week 6 of the season. However, considering various factors discussed in the latter part of this narrative, the Cowboys might face challenges in winning against the 49ers on the road.
If, by any chance, the 49ers are defeated, the Cowboys’ prospects of reaching the Super Bowl become more intriguing. With home-field advantage in every subsequent game, the Cowboys would have favorable conditions. Among the NFC playoff teams, only the Philadelphia Eagles managed to defeat the Cowboys, but Dallas avenged that loss at home in Week 14. If another team eliminates the 49ers, the Cowboys could emerge as the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Obstacles to Dallas Making the Super Bowl: The San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers currently hold the best odds to win the Super Bowl this season, surpassing even the Ravens, who defeated them a few weeks ago. San Francisco boasts a formidable combination of both offensive and defensive prowess, featuring standout players such as Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, forming one of the most potent collections of skill players in the NFL. Defensively, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Charvarius Ward rank among the best at their respective positions.
While the 49ers experienced a three-game losing streak when key players like Samuel and star left tackle Trent Williams were sidelined earlier in the season, fully healthy, they have only been defeated by Baltimore. Considering the 32-point margin of loss to San Francisco, the Cowboys face a formidable challenge in a potential rematch during the NFC Championship, despite the improved performance of Prescott, Lamb, and Dallas’ offense in the latter part of the season.
Recent history between the 49ers and Cowboys has favored San Francisco, especially in crucial matchups, with three encounters in the past three seasons, including two playoff games. On both occasions in the playoffs, the 49ers emerged victorious, sending the Cowboys home.
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has struggled against San Francisco, dating back to his tenure with the Green Bay Packers. McCarthy holds an 0-4 playoff record against the 49ers, with two losses occurring in the past two seasons and the others in 2012 and 2013.
While the Ravens demonstrated that San Francisco is beatable, whether the Cowboys possess the capability to do so remains a significant question mark. The path for the Cowboys in this postseason likely involves overcoming the formidable challenge presented by the 49ers.
The Cowboys’ offense experiences subdued periods during critical moments in significant games.
In Dallas’ last three matchups against playoff-caliber opponents (the Detroit Lions, the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo Bills), its offense experienced a notable downturn. Despite finishing the season with an average league-best of 29.9 points per game, the Cowboys only averaged 16.6 points in those three games. During each of these games, Dallas had approximately a two-quarter stretch without scoring. In the game against Detroit, the only first-half touchdown was a 92-yard play where a Lions defender slipped. This match, played at home, was the only instance this season when Dallas scored less than 30 points at AT&T Stadium. Notably, Buffalo ranks fourth in points per game allowed, while Detroit and Miami do not fall within the top 20; both defenses limited Dallas to 20 points.
Had it not been for a controversial 2-point conversion mistake against the Lions, the Cowboys would have gone 0-3 against playoff teams to conclude the season. Typically, most Super Bowl-winning teams enter the postseason on a hot streak, with recent exceptions including Baltimore in 2012 (1-3 in the final four games that starters played), Seattle in 2013 (2-2), Denver in 2015 (2-2), and the Patriots in 2018 (2-2).
The Bills and 49ers are the only two top-10 scoring defenses the Cowboys have faced this year, and they scored 10 points in each of those games. The upcoming game against the Packers will be the third encounter with a top-10 defense this Sunday.
