What may the Jaguars expect from Ryan Nielsen?
The Jacksonville Jaguars are trying to find a different defensive strategy.
A little more than 24 hours after the Jaguars’ season concluded, head coach Doug Pederson sacked Mike Caldwell and seven other defensive assistants, ending Caldwell’s two-year tenure as the team’s defensive coordinator.
We are now considering what each coordinator could be able to contribute to the table, with the Jaguars already casting a broad net in the hunt for a new coordinator.
Ryan Nielsen, the defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons, is next.
After the hiring round is over, Nielsen is probably going to be among the most sought-after coordinator names available. After the Falcons ended No. 18 in points allowed, No. 12 in EPA/Play, No. 5 in success rate, and No. 1 in rushing EPA/Play, 44-year-old Nielsen concluded his debut season in that role.
However, how might Nielsen and the Jaguars combine? Below, we dissect it.
Advantages
Under Nielsen’s leadership, the defense of the Atlanta Falcons improved significantly in his first season in charge of the unit. Below, you can see that the Falcons’ defense performed far better in 2023 than in 2022 in almost every significant and long-term indicator, according to data from Sumer Sports.
While a large portion of the Falcons’ 2023 defensive success can be ascribed to their free-agency expenditures, Nielsen is ultimately responsible for bringing it all together. The Falcons’ secondary had an excellent season under his leadership, and his track record as a defensive line coach is well established.
In 2023, the Jaguars’ front, particularly the defensive line, had trouble finishing the season strong. The Jaguars invested a lot of money in their offensive line, but outside linebackers Josh Allen and Travon Walker were the only players that could match those expenditures in 2023.
Given Atlanta’s prowess in running the ball and Nielsen’s reputation as a defensive line master, it seems likely that he could restore the Jaguars’ defensive front to its required level of performance.
Regarding his approach, Nielsen stated last year, according to ESPN, “Stop the run, and stop it in a light box, which is impressive if you don’t need to allocate resources to stop the run, if you can do that then you are playing pretty good run defense.” “We will attack in all phases of defense and at every position. That is what we will do in everything that we do.”
Furthermore, Nielsen used a variety of fronts with Atlanta while coming from a 4-3 multiple front coaching tree, indicating that he can adapt his scheme to fit the roster rather than the other way around.
Cons
There aren’t many issues with Nielsen’s application. The fact that he has a history of significant man-coverage may be one of them. The Jaguars have been a zone-heavy club for the past few seasons, as we discussed in Wink Martindale’s profile, and their expenditures in the back seven are indicative of this.
When it comes to Nielsen, the question is whether he can change his scheme (which ranks No. 1 in man coverage rate and No. 30 in zone coverage rate) or if the Jaguars secondary can change to match his scheme. Regardless of their hiring, the Jaguars’ secondary has immediate and long-term concerns to address, but this kind of plan might serve as an example.
Moreover, Nielsen’s experience is comparatively less than that of some of the other contenders. Defense has been led by contenders like Shane Bowen, Martindale, and Marquand Manuel for a longer period of time than Nielsen. Though it shouldn’t be a big deal, the fact that he isn’t the most experienced applicant does exist.
