Radical Measures: Broncos’ Three Strategies for Achieving Salary Cap Compliance in 2024

Irrespective of the chosen course of action, the Denver Broncos are confronted with challenging decisions. Heading into the offseason, the primary objective is to align with the salary cap. While the actual cap for 2024 is yet to be determined, projections indicate the Broncos could be $23.6 million above the cap, considering a base cap of $242 million.

It’s crucial to note that the ‘effective cap space,’ as per Over the Cap, reflects the absence of contracts for all 51 players for 2024, particularly for teams still engaged in the playoffs. During the offseason, the top 51 cutoff rule is in play, where only the highest 51 cap hits contribute to the cap, excluding those below the cutoff.

With 59 players currently under contract, including futures contracts, the Broncos are expected to be above the cap regardless of the actual number. This raises the pivotal question: how can the Broncos achieve cap compliance?

Three potential scenarios exist for the Broncos to navigate, each contingent on the team’s confidence in its current roster’s playoff contention viability. Let’s delve into these scenarios:

**Scenario 1: Run it All Back**
In this scenario, the Broncos maintain the bulk of their roster and strive for compliance through contract restructures or extensions. Initial steps involve restructuring contracts for key players, such as Zach Allen, Ben Powers, Mike McGlinchey, and Alex Singleton, yielding a potential cap relief of $5.83 million. Subsequently, short-term extensions for Garett Bolles and Justin Simmons, with salary-to-bonus conversions, could provide an additional $20 million in cap space. This approach enables cap compliance without player cuts, showcasing confidence in the team’s near-term playoff prospects.

However, the downside includes potential challenges in freeing up cap space post-2025 and uncertainties regarding player longevity. Committing to Russell Wilson for the next few seasons becomes more likely under this scenario.

**Scenario 2: Run it Back… Slightly**
In this alternative, the Broncos signal a transition to a different roster while retaining select players. Not all 2023 free-agent signings undergo restructures, and extensions for aging players are less prioritized. Notably, the likelihood of parting ways with Russell Wilson increases, with potential cap savings through the release of Tim Patrick and D.J. Jones, along with trading Jerry Jeudy. While this approach avoids extensive cap restructuring, it necessitates addressing additional roster gaps and acquiring draft capital.

**Scenario 3: Reset by Going Younger**
The final scenario emphasizes a roster overhaul, avoiding restructures or extensions. Trading players like Courtland Sutton, Garett Bolles, and Justin Simmons becomes integral to accumulating cap space, reaching $36 million after roster cuts. This approach allows for a strategic exploration of free agency and retaining key players, providing an opportunity to build for the future. However, the success of this scenario hinges on effective talent scouting, impactful free-agent signings, and wise draft selections.

In conclusion, the decision-making process revolves around the Broncos’ perception of their playoff competitiveness and the desired timeline for contention. Each scenario presents trade-offs, urging careful consideration to determine the most sensible approach for the team’s future.