Navigating the Green Bay Packers’ Offseason: Roster Analysis and Potential Moves

At a juncture in this season, it seemed the Green Bay Packers were on the brink. Their fortunes had dwindled, losing five out of six games, transforming a promising 2-1 start into a disheartening 3-6 record. Yet, their narrow loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers did not mark the conclusion of their journey.

Following that setback, Green Bay surged ahead, triumphing over the L.A. Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs. Though they stumbled with defeats against the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they reignited their momentum once more.

Closing out the season with three consecutive victories, the Packers secured a playoff berth with a 9-8 record. Subsequently, they toppled the No. 2 seed, dispatching the Dallas Cowboys. However, a narrow defeat to the 49ers spelled the end of their postseason aspirations. Nevertheless, they can hold their heads high as they approach the offseason, gearing up for the challenges of 2024.

As is often customary, future plans entail parting ways with some fan favorites, and these six Packers may find themselves on the way out — much to the dismay of their supporters.

6. Eric Wilson, LB

While Eric Wilson may not boast household recognition, he has carved a niche in the hearts of Packers fans over the past two seasons. A journeyman who tallied 122 tackles in 2020 for the Minnesota Vikings, Wilson has now represented four different teams in seven seasons.

In Green Bay, his playing time increased substantially from the 2022 campaign, with just 232 total snaps, to 429 snaps in 2023. Despite his limited appearances, Wilson displayed versatility, particularly in run defense. His contributions extended to special teams, where he logged a significant portion of his snaps, totaling 308 plays.

Despite his valuable role, it’s improbable that Wilson will return next season. While he excelled as a role player, the Packers may seek a more cost-effective option to fulfill his duties.

5. Darnell Savage, S

Among the players listed here, Darnell Savage is likely the one Green Bay would ideally retain for the 2024 season. However, as is often the case, it’s not a straightforward decision.

Savage, a first-round selection from Maryland in 2019, has evolved into a highly effective safety. Pro Football Focus has recognized his talent, ranking him in the top-20 at his position twice — placing 16th this year and 17th in 2020. Yet, his performance has also shown fluctuations, with rankings of 48th as a rookie, and 72nd and 87th in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

While acknowledging that PFF assessments aren’t infallible and are sometimes contentious, it’s evident that Savage has consistently contributed positively. As he heads into free agency, he’ll likely seek a lucrative contract, and there will undoubtedly be suitors willing to meet his demands. Given Green Bay’s financial constraints and impending renegotiation with Jordan Love, they might opt to distribute their resources more judiciously. This could lead to the decision to allow Savage to depart and extend an offer to Jonathan Owens, who is also poised for free agency.

Owens joined the Packers this past offseason following a four-year tenure with the Houston Texans. His performance in 2022, where he amassed 125 tackles for Houston, showcased his potential. In Green Bay, Owens made 11 starts, accumulating 84 tackles, three pass defenses, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown in their victory over Detroit. Notably, he recorded 12 tackles, including one for a loss, in two games during the season.

THAT'S A TOUCHDOWN!

The @Packers add to their lead after a booth review confirms this Jonathan Owens fumble return!

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/DeCp1IjYqf

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 23, 2023

Despite Jonathan Owens facing challenges in the playoff loss to San Francisco, retaining him at strong safety and pairing him with Rudy Ford in the deep safety position could be a sensible strategy. Ford, despite not holding a full-time starter role, has showcased his capabilities with 115 tackles, five interceptions, and nine pass defenses over the past two seasons. This tandem could offer a balanced and effective combination in the Packers’ defensive lineup for the upcoming season.

4. A.J. Dillon, RB

Despite the presence of Aaron Jones on their roster, the Green Bay Packers opted to draft A.J. Dillon from Boston College in the 2020 NFL Draft. This decision proved to be astute, as the 247-pound running back brought a unique dimension to their rushing attack compared to Jones.

Dillon’s rookie season saw a modest start with 242 yards, but he flourished in his second year. Playing in all 17 games, he amassed 803 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Additionally, he showcased his versatility as a receiver, securing 34 of 37 targets for an extra 313 yards and two scores.

What a time to score your first NFL touchdown!

Rookie AJ Dillon puts the @packers up 19. #TENvsGB // @nbc pic.twitter.com/JERc1VgZNk

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 28, 2020

After four seasons, A.J. Dillon has accumulated 2,428 rushing yards and 763 receiving yards, tallying 18 total touchdowns. However, he’s coming off his least productive season, managing only 613 rushing yards at an average of 3.4 yards per attempt, with just two touchdowns—his lowest since his rookie year.

Although Dillon is still four years younger than Jones, the seasoned veteran has maintained impressive performance levels. Jones boasted an average of 4.6 yards per touch this season. Despite missing six games and scoring only three touchdowns in the regular season, Jones delivered standout performances in the playoffs.

In the victory against Dallas, Jones amassed 118 yards and three touchdowns, followed by another strong showing with 108 yards in the loss to San Francisco. While the Packers still require a complementary back to keep Jones fresh, opting to invest in a more cost-effective, fresh-legged player from the draft instead of extending Dillon’s contract seems a prudent decision.

3. De’Vondre Campbell (Salary Cap Casualty)

Linebackers often serve as the backbone of a defense, yet they can sometimes be overshadowed. Moreover, like running backs, their careers can swiftly be derailed by injuries.

De’Vondre Campbell has experienced both ends of this spectrum. Drafted in the fourth round from Minnesota in 2016, he spent four years with the Atlanta Falcons, amassing 363 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and three interceptions (two returned for touchdowns).

Despite his achievements, Campbell found himself undervalued in free agency during the 2020 season, securing only a one-year contract with the Arizona Cardinals. Although he continued to produce impressive statistics, his market value remained stagnant. However, he discovered a stable role with Green Bay, signing another one-year deal.

Campbell elevated his performance to new heights with his new team, registering 146 tackles, two sacks, and two interceptions. His exceptional play earned him All-Pro recognition, leading to a lucrative five-year extension worth $50 million. However, just two years into the contract, his future with the team appears uncertain.

In the past two seasons, Campbell has missed 10 games, and his production has declined significantly, with only 75 tackles, no sacks, and no interceptions this year. It’s probable that Green Bay will need to address their inside linebacker depth chart in the upcoming draft, as parting ways with Campbell seems increasingly likely given the circumstances.

2. Preston Smith, EDGE (Salary Cap Casualty)

De’Vondre Campbell isn’t the sole veteran potentially facing an abrupt departure from Green Bay. In fact, according to Freddie Boston of Lombardi Ave, several veterans might be on the chopping block as the team seeks to align its salary cap. One such player is Preston Smith, a formidable pass-rusher who accumulated eight sacks last season and a total of 41.5 over his five-year tenure with the Packers.

Despite Smith’s impressive track record, his advancing age may factor into the decision-making process. As Boston suggests, the front office must consider the long-term implications, especially given that Smith’s contract becomes increasingly burdensome beyond the current season.

“While Green Bay would only gain approximately $2.5 million in cap space by releasing Smith this spring, the ramifications for future salary caps are more significant. Smith’s cap hits exceed $17.5 million in both 2025 and 2026. Opting to move on this offseason would entail immediate financial repercussions—the Packers would absorb $14 million in dead cap—but it would alleviate future salary cap strain.” — Freddie Boston, Lombardi Ave

One silver lining for Green Bay is that they already possess an in-house replacement, mitigating the risk of creating a void that necessitates external recruitment. Lukas Van Ness, their first-round selection in 2023, showcased considerable promise towards the end of the season. He tallied 32 tackles and secured four sacks, all of which were recorded after December. Additionally, Van Ness has proven himself as a force to be reckoned with against the run.

This is one hell of a rip move to defeat a double team from Packers EDGE Lukas Van Ness. pic.twitter.com/DHSb2wWeuZ

— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) September 22, 2023

Pairing Lukas Van Ness with Rashan Gary would indeed maintain a formidable pass rush for the Packers while also providing crucial relief for the team’s salary cap situation in the coming years. While it may be difficult for fans to bid farewell to a player like Preston Smith, from the perspective of the front office, it appears to be the prudent decision for the team’s long-term success and financial stability.

1. David Bakhtiari, LT (Salary Cap Casualty)

Selected in the fourth round from Colorado in 2013, David Bakhtiari emerged as one of the premier offensive tackles in the NFL. He provided steadfast protection for Aaron Rodgers’ blindside for numerous seasons, with expectations that he would continue to do so for Jordan Love in 2023 as Rodgers’ successor.

However, Bakhtiari’s season was marred by a knee injury, limiting him to just one game. This marked the second instance in three years where he appeared in only one game, and he has missed a total of 42 games over the past four seasons.

In his absence, former seventh-round pick Rasheed Walker stepped up, making 15 starts. While not exceptional in run blocking, Walker displayed promise in pass protection, potentially positioning himself as the starter for 2024—especially considering the improbability of Bakhtiari’s return.

Entering the offseason, the 11-year veteran carries an exorbitant cap hit of $40 million. Releasing or trading him (given his salary, trading is unfeasible) would incur a $19 million dead money charge, yet would yield nearly $21 million in savings. Given his recent availability concerns, this decision appears increasingly inevitable.

As is customary with veteran departures, bidding farewell to Bakhtiari will be challenging. He has been a linchpin on the offensive line for over a decade. However, the Packers cannot continue to wait for his return to full health. Instead, they must assess whether Walker can handle full-time duties or if additional support is needed via the draft.