Over the past two seasons, the New England Patriots have strayed from their success during Robert Kraft’s 30-year tenure as owner. The 2018 Patriots won Super Bowl 53, but since then, they haven’t won any playoff games. The 2019 and 2021 teams did make the playoffs, and from 2019 to 2021, the Patriots had at least three Pro Bowl players each year. However, over the last two seasons, with a 12-22 record, only one Patriot has made the Pro Bowl: Matthew Judon. Now, it appears his time in New England may be ending.
Judon joined the Patriots as a free agent on March 19, 2021, after spending his first five NFL seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, where he earned Pro Bowl honors in his final two seasons. The Patriots signed him to a $56 million, four-year contract, which proved beneficial for both sides. Judon restructured his contract slightly in 2023, allowing him to become a free agent in 2025.
In 2021, Judon set a career-high with 12.5 sacks, then surpassed it with 15.5 sacks in 2022, earning Pro Bowl selections both years. He recorded 4.0 sacks in the first 3.5 games of 2023 before a torn biceps ended his season.
Judon is entering the final year of his contract, and prospects for his return to New England don’t look promising.
From Matthew Judon’s Perspective
In Judon’s first year with the Patriots, he received $20 million in total cash, second only to T.J. Watt among NFL outside linebackers in 2021. Since then, Judon has dropped down the list of highest-paid OLBs, ranking 17th in 2024. Given his production, he might feel underpaid.
Judon will be 32 when the 2024 season starts, and he likely has one more big contract left. Seeking to maximize guaranteed money and wanting stability for the coming years makes sense. With the Patriots not appearing to be Super Bowl contenders in the near future, Judon might find better opportunities elsewhere. He has already switched teams once and is unlikely to take a hometown discount for a non-contending team with a new head coach and management.
When a user on X, Matt Tardiff, recently posted that the Patriots need to extend Judon’s contract, Judon responded, “Ion (I don’t) think that’s about to happen.”
From Eliot Wolf’s Perspective
Judon’s reasons for wanting a lucrative extension are also reasons why Eliot Wolf and the Patriots might hesitate. Judon will be 32 at the start of the 2024 season and played only four games last year. A three-year extension would mean paying him highly at age 35. While Judon might remain productive, it’s an expensive risk.
The Patriots’ defense was excellent last season, even without Judon. If everyone stays healthy in 2024, the unit should perform well again. Key losses include head coach Bill Belichick and defensive play caller Steve Belichick, but with the return of Christian Gonzalez and development of players like Keion White, the defense could improve.
However, Judon’s absence was felt in 2023. He led the team in sacks until Week 14, despite not playing since Week 4. His absence affected Joshua Uche’s production and increased pressure on an injury-hit defensive backfield. Judon’s value to the team is clear, and the front office is aware of this.
Eliot Wolf needs to determine if a contract for Judon aligns with the Patriots’ window to contend. Will Judon remain productive when the Patriots are ready to win? Can he stay effective as he ages?
Resolution Options
Judon is signed for the 2024 season and has stated he won’t lose money over missing mandatory activities. He attended mandatory minicamp and is expected at training camp, so a holdout is unlikely.
Four possible resolutions:
1.Sign an Extension: his is the least likely outcome, based on Judon’s comment and the conflicting interests. Extensions were given to younger players like Christian Barmore, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jahlani Tavai. Judon, at 32, is less likely to receive a team-friendly deal.
2. Trade Before the Season; Trading Judon before the season is risky. It would significantly impact the 2024 team, and the return would likely be draft picks. This might not send the right message to the team or fans.
3. Trade Before the Deadline; With the NFL trade deadline moved to Week 9 in 2024, the Patriots might be able to gauge their performance and Judon’s contributions. If the team struggles but Judon plays well, a contending team might offer a good deal.
4. Play Out the Season;Judon could play out the 2024 season without an extension. If he performs well, he could secure a lucrative contract in 2025, either with the Patriots or another team.
Judon is likely to start the 2024 season with the Patriots without an extension. If he remains healthy and productive, he’ll earn a substantial contract next year. Whether that contract comes from the Patriots or another team remains to be seen.
