The Green Bay Packers have already signaled a shift at the running back position by parting ways with rookie Aaron Jones and signing Josh Jacobs. However, another major change might be looming.
On Monday, September 2, ESPN’s Seth Walder predicted that rookie MarShawn Lloyd could overtake Jacobs as the Packers’ starting running back before the season ends, despite Green Bay signing Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract this offseason.
“rookie MarShawn Lloyd will assume the No. 1 running back role by the season’s end,” Walder stated on September 2. “Although Josh Jacobs was impressive in 2022, he had negative rush yards over expectation in 2020, 2021, and 2023 according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His RYOE last season was minus-86. I believe 2022 was an outlier for Jacobs, and by December, the Packers will prefer Lloyd as their primary back.”
Josh Jacobs Faces Pressure to Prove His Worth in Packers’ Offense
Replacing Jacobs with Lloyd might not be as challenging as it seems, given the structure of Jacobs’ contract. The Packers only guaranteed $12.5 million of Jacobs’ deal, which averages $12 million per year. Essentially, Jacobs is on an expensive one-year prove-it deal, with the following seasons’ cap hits contingent on his performance.
Meanwhile, Lloyd, a third-round pick from USC, is on a four-year, $5.8 million contract. Jacobs must not only perform well to keep his job but must excel to outshine the financial advantage Lloyd offers.
Jacobs led the league in rushing with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, but his performance was flanked by seasons of 872 and 805 rushing yards, respectively, along with missed games due to injuries.
AJ Dillon’s Neck Injury Gives rookie MarShawn Lloyd a Clear Path to a Starting Role
Lloyd averaged 7.1 yards per carry, totaling 820 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns in his single season at USC, per Football Reference. He also caught 13 passes for 232 receiving yards, playing alongside quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
Lloyd likely would have faced stiff competition for the RB2 spot from rookie AJ Dillon, but a season-ending neck injury for Dillon during the preseason has cleared the way for Lloyd to be the clear second option on the depth chart, ahead of third-stringer Emanuel Wilson.
Dillon, who re-signed with the Packers on a one-year, $2.75 million contract after a disappointing 2023 season, has missed his chance to become the lead back. Lloyd now has a prime opportunity to secure the starting role for the future.
If Walder’s prediction holds and Jacobs struggles to justify his contract, Lloyd needs only to perform well to claim the starting job, positioning himself as a long-term fixture in the Packers’ backfield.
Packers’ $48 Million Star Predicted to Lose Starting Job to Rookie
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