When the Minnesota Vikings traded with the Houston Texans for a late first-round pick more than a month before the 2024 NFL Draft, it signaled their intent to move up for a quarterback. With the 11th and 23rd picks in the first round, Minnesota can easily enter the top 10. However, to secure their preferred quarterback, they’ll likely need to trade up to the No. 2 spot, currently held by the Washington Commanders.
Over 30 years ago, during Jimmy Johnson’s tenure coaching the Dallas Cowboys, he created a draft pick trade value chart to determine the trade value of picks. Today, the NFL still uses variations of this chart to facilitate draft pick trades. In 2024, the No. 2 overall pick is valued at 2,600 points, according to Draft Tek.
For the Vikings to trade for the No. 2 pick, they would likely need to offer both their first-round picks. However, the combined value of the No. 11 (1,250) and No. 23 (760) picks falls short at 2,010, leaving them almost 600 points shy. Minnesota lacks a second or third-round pick this year, so the next available pick to trade is a fourth-round pick, valued at 78 points. Even with all their draft capital in 2024 (2,206.8 points), they are still 400 points short of the No. 2 pick.
This means the Vikings would likely need to include their 2025 first-round pick to make the trade, which could be risky unless they win the Super Bowl. Washington could also ask for Minnesota’s 2024 fourth or 2025 third-round pick as well. Therefore, the ideal trade for the Vikings to offer the Commanders for the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft would likely include their No. 11 and No. 23 picks, their 2025 first-round pick, and possibly their 2024 fourth or 2025 third-round pick.
Ultimately, the Vikings will need to decide which quarterback prospect they value most if they make this trade.
