Anticipate a considerable offensive display, with a notable focus on Blake Corum’s performance. According to Heavy Sports’ AI-powered projections model, developed in collaboration with Quarter 4, the forecast points towards a Michigan football triumph over Alabama on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl. Here are five predictions generated by the AI model for the upcoming game:
1: Michigan’s Blake Corum will have a dominating performance, running successfully against the Alabama defense.
The Heavy Sports AI model foresees an outstanding performance from Michigan’s running back, Blake Corum. The projections suggest that Corum will exceed his season averages in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and receiving yards during the game.
The model predicts the following for Corum: 18.7 carries (compared to his season average of 16.8), 98 rushing yards (as opposed to 79.1), and 10.9 receiving yards (versus 6.3). These projections indicate a performance reminiscent of Corum’s strong finish in the regular season, where he recorded his three highest carry totals and three of his top five rushing-yard totals in wins over Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State.
Corum’s notable performances in those games were as follows:
1. 26 carries for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 24-15 victory over Penn State.
2. 28 carries for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 31-24 win over Maryland.
3. 22 carries for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 30-24 triumph over Ohio State.
These impressive statistics showcase Corum’s significant contributions during critical matchups for the Wolverines.
2: Both quarterbacks will ensure the ball is handled responsibly.
Our projections indicate that Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to be slightly more prone to turnovers than his season average. The forecast predicts McCarthy to have 0.6 interceptions, a tad higher than his season average of 0.3. However, the model suggests that another game without interceptions by McCarthy is well within the realm of likely outcomes.
In the subsequent 10 games, McCarthy has demonstrated notable improvement, contributing 12 touchdowns with just one interception.
Our interception projection for the game remains consistent at 0.6, and this forecast applies to Jalen Milroe, the counterpart to Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy on the Alabama side. Milroe has demonstrated a slightly higher tendency for interceptions this season, with six thrown. However, his recent performances have been outstanding, as he delivered seven touchdowns without any interceptions in the final games of the season. Notably, Milroe contributed a two-touchdown, interception-free performance in Alabama’s 27-24 victory over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
3: The game will feature a higher scoring output than what is currently anticipated by the Vegas consensus.
Although our projections don’t foresee an all-out shootout, they do anticipate a game with slightly higher scoring than what the consensus from U.S.-based online sportsbooks suggests.
Our model forecasts a combined points total of 46.5, which is slightly higher than any of the sportsbooks in our database. While this figure isn’t uncommon for either team, it surpasses the consensus predictions from the sportsbooks.
The expectation of a mid-40s or higher point total aligns with the recent performance trends of both teams. Following Michigan’s first four games with point totals under 46, they participated in eight consecutive games with more than 45 points scored. This streak concluded with a 26-0 victory in the Big Ten title game.
Notably, even in the lowest-scoring games of Michigan’s football season, the Wolverines managed respectable point totals, scoring at least 24 points in all 13 games and reaching at least 30 points in 11 of them.
In contrast, Alabama has been less prolific in scoring, falling below 30 points in seven of its 13 games. However, the Crimson Tide have been involved in high-scoring contests in their last six games, including a 42-28 victory against LSU and a 49-21 road blowout of Kentucky in consecutive games on November 4 and November 11.
4: Michigan Footballers Kicker, James Turner, Expected to Play a Pivotal Role
In contrast to other championship contenders, the Michigan football team stood out by participating in very few games that were closely contested. The Wolverines, with an average scoring margin of over 27 points per game, were involved in only three games decided by single digits.
This pattern translated to limited meaningful action for kicker James Turner throughout the season. However, with the Alabama game anticipated to be much closer than most of Michigan’s previous matchups, the Heavy model foresees a higher level of involvement and potentially more significant contributions from Turner.
Our projections indicate that James Turner is among the players likely to deviate from his season-long averages. We anticipate him having 2.1 field goal attempts with 1.6 made field goals.
While 2.1 field goal attempts may not seem significantly high, it’s noteworthy as Turner has attempted more than two field goals in a game only twice throughout the entire season. Interestingly, those two instances occurred in Michigan’s two most recent games: a 30-26 victory over arch-rival Ohio State and a 26-0 victory over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. Turner demonstrated perfection in both games, going 3-for-3 against Ohio State and 4-for-4 against Iowa.
5. The AI model predicts that Michigan football will secure a victory by a margin greater than a field goal.
Our model expresses a more optimistic outlook on Michigan compared to the consensus of major sportsbooks. As of Wednesday evening, our model projected a point spread favoring Michigan by 3.5 points. Although this deviation is not dramatically distinct from the sportsbook consensus, it does stand two full points more in Michigan’s favor than the projections from all seven sportsbooks in our database.
